The saddest man in the country, next to President Aznar is, of course, the Partido Popular’s failed bet, Mariano Rajoy, who had been tipped to win by all the polls and pundits despite his lack-lustre campaign – and his refusal to "debate" with Zapatero.
The nation’s leader, Aznar, who had propelled Spain to unprecedented prosperity in his eight years in office, but decided to step down to retirement, anointing Rajoy as his "successor", has seen his policies repudiated by the electorate.
The voters quietly strolled, not "trooped" to the polling precincts Sunday – and delivered a thumping 42.64 percent to the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE).
Aznar’s Partido Popular got only 37.65 percent, thus losing control of the government.
In sum, the Socialist PSOE grabbed 164 seats in parliament (Congreso de Los Diputados) while Aznar’s PP garnered only 148 – losing 35 seats – a crushing defeat. (Parliament has 350 seats).
This means, very clearly that Zapatero will shortly form a new government, a completely new cabinet, and take over the realm of the government by the end of this month.
(An AFP dispatch from Madrid reported that Zapatero Monday vowed to withdraw Spanish troops from the Iraq within months. "The war in Iraq was a disaster, the occupation of Iraq is a disaster," Zapatero told Cadeda Ser radio. He added Spain's 1,300 troops sent to Iraq would "evidently" be pulled out of the country if there is no change there by June 30, the date the US has promised to transfer sovereignty to an Iraqi provisional government.)
What provoked this unexpected upset? Monday morning quarterbacking will come up with a variety of reasons and alibis, but it’s clear one turning point was the terrible terrorist bombings of four packed trains in Madrid last Thursday morning which killed 200 commuters and gravely injured 1,500. The Basque separatist "guerillas" ETA were initially blamed by the government, but late Saturday night, in a surprise reversal of tack, Interior Minister Angel Acebes released details of the horrible assault which could finger Muslim terrorists linked to al-Qaeda as the perpetrators of what grieving and angry Spaniards now call the "M-11" massacre (for "Marzo 11") – their equivalent of America’s 9/11 tragedy.
Acebes said the police nabbed five men – three Morrocans and two of Indian "origin" – obviously Muslims (Jamal Zougam, Muhamed Chaoui, Mohamed Bakali Boutaliha, plus Vinay Kohly, and Surish Kumar). The police had recovered one of the knapsacks or backpacks which failed to detonate (there were 11 blasts which ripped trains and victims apart last Thursday). The detonator, a cellphone (movil in Spanish) had inadvertently been "off" – batteries expired – and thus failed to ignite the deadly Goma-Dos explosive and sharp nails packed in the lethal bag. Brilliant sleuthing by police located the source of the cellphone itself. The trail had led to the Indians.
This Brigade Abu Dahdah link to al-Qaeda (the Muslim group had been claiming they did it, while ETA kept on denying the deed) may have affected the voter’s mood. (Could Acebes not have withheld that information for one day? His angry, defeated partymates are now asking.)
An unprecedented 77.4 percent of the 25.5 million voters turned out Sunday, the biggest in electoral history (compared with the 68.7 percent turnout which gave Aznar and his PP their triumph in 2000).
The vote was seen to repudiate the Aznar government’s alliance with US President George W. Bush and Spain’s role in Iraq. (Perhaps, in the immediate sense that these had provoked the now suspected al-Qaeda terrorist attack on the trains in the central Atocha, El Pozo, and Santa Eugenia train stations.) There has, to be sure, much unease here for months on the Iraq invasion and the participation of Spain’s Fuerzas Armadas (armed forces) in the occupation of Iraq.
Zapatero pledged during the campaign to "withdraw" Spain’s troops from Baghdad and other Iraq expedition.
Secondly, the vote was seen as a last-minute revision towards perceived government spin-doctoring and deception, seeking to cast blame on the Basque ETA, when instead the attackers/bombers had come from Osama’s al-Qaeda. (This still has to be proven.)
What’s significant in the context of our coming May 10 elections is that the polling precincts were closed at 7 p.m. Sunday, and the results were known nationwide by 11 p.m. the same night or within less than four hours! All the poll surveys and forecasts, and pundits, which had predicted a narrow but decisive victory by Aznar’s ruling Partido Popular were also repudiated – and embarrassed.
All day Sunday, this writer drove around to observe the voting in Madrid, to Cuenca, and Valencia, the number 3 city (of 2.4 million) some 164 km. away from the capital. It was orderly and quiet – an almost sleepy Sunday.
But the outcome was volcanic. It will change Spain.
As for the victor, Zapatero is one of the youngest ever shot up to power. He is a very un-typical Spaniard: Born in Valladolid city, some 150 km. from Madrid, in 1960, he joined the Socialist PSOE at the age of 18 without consulting his conservative father and brothers. He is courageous, but not flirtatious, quietly and happily married. He has never been known to have lost his temper. He does not drink, nor does he enjoy food! Whaat? A Spaniard or what?
But remember Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar in which it was remarked about the plotting Senator Cassius: "He hath a lean and hungry look."
Zapatero is handsome, not hungry – but, to me, has that look.
He may surprise us, even as his terrific electorate triumph is surprising. Spain is headed for surprising times!