On a knoll overlooking the spot where a plane crashed into the Pentagon, a chilly breeze brings a faint smell of something burned. Among the wreaths, letters and pictures of the dead and missing on this knoll, a placard declares: "Never give up. Never give in. Never forget. Never again."
American nerves are frayed and business is a mess. The uncertainty is spilling over into Asia, and this is bad news for the Philippines.
The world economy had already entered an unexpectedly steep slowdown in 2001, and Sept. 11 "will clearly deepen and lengthen that slowdown," Brahmbhatt told the Jefferson Fellows at the World Bank headquarters here. Asia, whose recovery from the 1997 financial crisis was fueled in large part by the high-tech boom, is now suffering the cost of the "exceptionally steep high-tech recession of 2001," he said.
Brahmbhatt notes that the events since Sept. 11 may lead to more political stress in some countries. While he sees no increase in the incidence of poverty in the near future, he believes poverty reduction is going to slow down.
Anoop Singh, deputy director of the International Monetary Funds Asia and Pacific Department, also sees lower growth for Asia next year as a result of the terrorist attacks.
Most Asian economies, he noted, are running surpluses and the regions macroeconomic position is "generally more sound" than in 1997.
He probably was not referring to the Philippines, whose deficit rose to P122 billion in the first nine months of the year past the programmed level of P120.2 billion. Financial and banking reforms have been strengthened in Asia since 1997, and there has been less dependence on capital markets. But the equity markets in the Philippines and Indonesia have been the worst performing in the region since Sept. 11.
Both Brahmbhatt and Singh emphasize the need to continue with reforms in Asia. Brahmbhatt stressed the need to push corporate restructuring, further trade liberalization and reforms in governance.
"Were seeing a gradual political maturation (in Asia)," he said. "There has been a lot of political turbulence but also peaceful transitions and a gradual consolidation of more democratic norms and the outside world is seeing that."
The third stage, the official said, involves going after Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network.
Meanwhile, Americans are worrying about anthrax. Whats next on the terrorist menu?
This war is going to be protracted, the uncertainty is going to be protracted, and we better be ready for it on all fronts.