Mindanao power reserves may run out by 2028 – NGCP

MANILA, Philippines —  Mindanao may face a repeat of the 2012 energy crisis as the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) projects power reserves to be depleted in the next two years.

“I hope NGCP’s projection is wrong. We are seeing that by 2028, there will be no excess (capacity),” NGCP spokesperson Cynthia Alabanza said at the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum yesterday.

Alabanza said the looming crisis is not a recent development, noting that warning signs have been evident for several years.

The NGCP, in particular, has recorded one to two days of yellow alert in the region each year in the past three years.

Mindanao has also experienced occasional red alerts every year, indicating increasingly tight power supply margins.

“Now, demand has caught up again. It is starting. We are feeling the demand catching up with supply,” Alabanza said.

In 2012, the region experienced a power crisis largely due to insufficient baseload capacity and an imbalanced power generation mix.

The supply situation improved after several coal-fired plants began operations, helping ease the region’s power shortage.

Coal facilities are regarded as reliable sources of baseload power because they can operate continuously and provide a steady supply of electricity.

“But after the plants came online, additional capacity was no longer added,” Alabanza said.

During supply-demand imbalances, the NGCP deploys ancillary services to maintain the reliability and stability of the country’s electrical superhighway.

These include contingency reserves, which protect the grid from sudden disruptions, and dispatchable reserves or backup capacities that are ready to be activated when demand rises unexpectedly.

For months, grid alerts have been hoisted over Mindanao amid simultaneous shutdowns of major coal-fired facilities.

So far this year, 17 yellow and four red alerts have been logged in the region, latest NGCP data showed.

A yellow alert is issued when power reserves fall to low levels, while a red alert is hoisted when supply is no longer sufficient to meet consumers’ demand.

The power supply problem in Mindanao is spilling over into the Visayas, which imports some of its electricity from the southern region.

The NGCP admitted that the Visayas has not kept pace in baseload power development, which has led to the region’s current electricity woes.

The Visayas grid was placed under yellow alert yesterday, from 5 to 8 p.m.

Alabanza said power demand had not been declining.

The power problem in the Visayas is happening as the region’s economy rises.

“When there are more people, you need economic activity for the population to grow,” Alabanza said.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, Western Visayas, which includes Iloilo and Aklan, posted the fastest growth rate among all administrative regions in 2025, at 6.4 percent.

The Negros Island Region exceeded the national rate at 5.69 percent.

The Department of Energy is currently crafting a master power plan for the Visayas, but DOE Secretary Sharon Garin said this would take time to accomplish due to the complexity of the region’s power woes. ­

–  EJ Macababbad