Up to 15 cyclones to hit Philippines until November

MANILA, Philippines — Up to 15 tropical cyclones may enter or develop in the country between June and November this year, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned the public yesterday.

Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, said one to three cyclones are expected in June, two to four in July and two or three each month from August to November.

Solis said global forecast showed a “slightly active” tropical cyclone formation in June, July and August in the Western North Pacific.

The state weather bureau said the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon is expected to start between this week and the first half of June.

Solis said the occurrence of thunderstorms in some parts of the country, including Metro Manila, is an indication of the arrival of the southwest monsoon.

“Thunderstorm activities are precursory signs… but we have yet to see widespread rainfall distribution,” she told a virtual climate forum.

Solis said generally near normal rainfall conditions are expected from June to August except for patches of below normal rainfall in Luzon in June.

She said near normal rainfall could be expected in September, except for below normal rains in some parts of western Luzon and above normal rain in parts of Bicol, central and eastern Visayas and Caraga.

Generally near normal rainfall is forecast over most parts of the country in October while central and southern Luzon and eastern Visayas are likely to receive above normal rainfall.

In November, generally above normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Luzon and parts of the Visayas – Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo and Negros Oriental – and Mindanao – Davao de Oro, Davao Oriental, South Cotabato, Sarangani and Basilan.

Near normal rainfall can be expected in the rest of the country.