'Asteroid to hit Earth next year'

CLARK FREEPORT, Pampanga, Philippines – A 60-meter asteroid, discovered only last February, will pass and possibly hit the Earth 11 months from now, the chief astronomer of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said yesterday.

Dario de la Cruz told The STAR that the asteroid, referred to as DA14, was estimated to be nearest to Earth by February next year.

De la Cruz, however, said there should be no cause for panic as latest calculation indicated the asteroid might only pass at a distance of 27,000 kilometers, although this has been described as “closer than the geosynchronous orbit of some satellites.”

US National Aeronautics and Space Administration expert David Dunham earlier expressed fears that “the Earth’s gravitational field will alter the asteroid’s path significantly” and that “further scrupulous calculation is required to estimate the threat of collision.”

De la Cruz noted that the impact of a 60-meter asteroid would not affect the entire planet. The destruction, he said, would be of the magnitude of the asteroid that affected Tunguska in Siberia in 1908. The impact knocked down trees over a total area of 2,150 square miles, almost the size of Luxembourg.

Dr. Armando Lee, director of the Institute of Astronomy of the Astronomical League of the Philippines, however, disagreed with both De la Cruz and Dunham.

Lee said the estimated distance of 27,000 kilometers distance from Earth at the asteroid’s nearest is “too much.” He cited scientific records indicating that such estimates normally get bigger as space objects get near the Earth.

“There are many newly discovered near-Earth objects that pass the Earth’s orbit but none has hit us in modern times,” he said, adding that the 11-month timeframe of the DA14 approach indicated the asteroid was “too near.”