Nograles to beat Duterte's daughter if polls held today

MANILA, Philippines - Speaker Prospero Nograles, who is running for mayor of Davao City, would beat his opponent, Vice Mayor Sara Duterte, by a slim margin if elections were held today.

This is according to a survey conducted by public relations practitioner-turned-pollster Ed Malay last Dec. 10 to 22 among 1,200 respondents in the world’s largest city in terms of land area. Malay was former President Fidel Ramos’ media handler.

Duterte is seeking to replace her father, incumbent Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, who is on his last term. Mayor Duterte, on the other hand, is running as his daughter’s vice mayoral candidate. Nograles is thus battling a Duterte-Duterte team.

According to the results of Malay’s survey, 45 percent of the 1,200 respondents would vote for Nograles, while 44 percent would vote for Vice Mayor Duterte.

In the vice mayoral race, Mayor Duterte is leading his opponent, former vice mayor Benjamin de Guzman, 49 percent-38 percent.

Two weeks ago, Mayor Duterte declared that if he and Nograles win on May 10, respectively, he would not assume office as vice mayor because he cannot serve under his political rival.

In reaction, the Speaker said he would work with whomever the people of Davao City would elect as his vice mayor.

He said he has a proven track record of being able to work with both administration and opposition members of the House of Representatives.

Malay said Nograles’ one-percentage-point margin over Vice Mayor Duterte “can be considered significant since the Dutertes are regarded as firmly in control of the city’s political affairs and have ruled it for many years.”

In fact, the Speaker was not given much of a chance when he filed his certificate of candidacy for mayor.

His good performance in the survey “could only mean that the people of Davao City are looking for a change in its leadership,” he said.

“They may be looking for more dynamic leadership in further developing their city, which is lagging in progress compared to other cities,” he added.

Nograles pointed out that one reason for such good showing is the fact that the first district, which he represents in the House, is the most populous with 391,431 registered voters among the city’s three districts.

Nograles’ son Karlo is seeking to replace his father as first district representative.

Malay said Karlo is leading his opponents by a wide margin with 54 percent, followed by Maria Belen Acosta with 28 percent, Robert Elnar Olanolan with five percent, and Jocelyn Duterte with one percent.

In the second district, he said it’s a close contest among Mylene Garcia (25 percent), Danilo Dayanghirang (24 percent) and Diosdado Mahipus (22 percent). A fourth candidate, Joji Ilagan Bian, garnered 16 percent.

In the third district, Malay reported that former congressman Ruy Lopez obtained 32 percent, followed by former congressman Tom Ungab (29 percent) and Wigberto Echavez Al-ag (15 percent).

The number of voters in Davao City has risen to 948,438 from 750,662 in 2007.

In the same survey, Malay said respondents were asked if the issue of human rights violations in their city would affect their decision on whom to vote for in May.

Forty-four percent said it would, 31 percent answered that it would not matter, while 25 percent were not sure.

Human rights violations in Davao City have been noted not only by international human rights organizations but by American congressmen as well.

The US Congress has linked financial aid to the Philippines to a stop in human rights abuses, including those committed by “death squads” in Davao City.