Maliki government doomed to weaken, US intelligence says

WASHINGTON (AFP) - In a bleak outlook of the political situation in Iraq, US intelligence officials warned yesterday that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government will become "more precarious" in the coming months.

"The IC (intelligence community) assesses that the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition" as well as Sunni and Kurdish parties, a new US intelligence estimate warned.

The key judgements of the assessment were released after being declassified by the Director for National Intelligence, and come amid mounting frustration inside the US administration at the lack of political progress in Iraq.

Maliki's attempts to bridge Iraq's ethnic and sectarian divides have so far failed, with 17 of 40 ministers having resigned or decided to boycott the cabinet and unending daily bloodshed taking its toll on ordinary Iraqis.

Unless there is "a fundamental shift in factors driving Iraqi political and security developments," the political compromises needed for "sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge," the assessment said.

In February the intelligence community's assessment of the Iraq situation warned that even if the violence subsided, Iraqi leaders would be "hard pressed" to achieve political reconciliation over the next 12-18 months.

Since then, the United States has sent 30,000 additional troops to Iraq, boosting its force levels to 162,000 in a bid to stem a slide toward civil war.

But Maliki has so far failed to deliver any major pieces of legislation aimed at promoting reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites.

And President George W. Bush, under mounting pressure at home to find a way out of the dragging war, this week expressed his frustration with the lack of progress, only to reaffirm his support for Maliki the following day.

"Prime Minister Maliki's a good guy, good man, with a difficult job, and I support him," Bush said in a speech Wednesday as he set out his case for staying the course in Iraq.

The intelligence assessment did conclude that there have been "measurable but uneven" improvements in Iraq's security in the past months.

But it warned that insurgent violence will remain high and the government will struggle to achieve national political reconciliation.

The Sunni resistance to the Al-Qaeda in Iraq group had expanded but had not yet translated into broad support for the government or willingness to work with Shiites, it said

And Shiite leaders fear the Sunnis will ultimately choose to side with the armed opponents of the Shiite-led government, the assessment said.

"Bottom up" security initiatives among Sunnis focused on combatting Al-Qaeda offer the best prospect for improved security over the next year, but only if the Iraqi government accepts and supports them, it concluded.

The update, which represents the consensus of 16 US intelligence agencies, is called "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: Some Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive."

It comes just weeks before General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker offer their own assessment of whether US strategy has worked and what to do next.

They are scheduled to testify before Congress September 11 and 12, and issue a report on the situation on September 15.