Analysts say Myanmar junta unlikely to free Suu Kyi

BANGKOK (AFP) - Myanmar's generals will likely defy international pressure and keep opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest in an effort to avoid domestic confrontation, analysts say.

Aung San Suu Kyi's detention is due to be reviewed by the military-ruled state on Sunday. But calls for her release from UN rights experts and former world leaders including Bill Clinton are likely to fall on deaf ears as the junta reasserts its power in the face of an internal power battle.

"The military considers her dangerous and a key rival for power, so unless someone takes that idea of Aung San Suu Kyi as the enemy away, I don't think she will be released," said Myanmar analyst Aung Naing Oo.

The review comes as the military regime is facing its own succession issues, with Prime Minister Soe Win undergoing treatment abroad and junta head Senior General Than Shwe also thought to be in ill health.

Aung San Suu Kyi has spent most of the last 17 years under house arrest and calls for the 61-year-old's release have been growing ahead of the review date.

But Myanmar's military rulers have reacted with characteristic defiance, cracking down on dissent in the run-up to the review.

Up to 60 activists have been arrested in the past week as they went to pagodas to pray for Aung San Suu Kyi's release, and 43 remain in custody.

One Western analyst based in Yangon said the regime was "highly unlikely" to free Aung San Suu Kyi when it was caught up in its own internal power battle.

"They seem to be caught in the midst of major changes ... so I don't think they actually have the time to manage anything aside from an extension of her detention," the analyst said.

The Nobel peace laureate's latest detention began in May 2003, when her convoy was attacked by a pro-government militia, just a year after she was freed from house arrest.

Known simply as "The Lady" in Myanmar, she was accused of causing unrest and thrown into prison but, following an operation four months later, was allowed to return to her lakeside Yangon home under house arrest.

Sunday also marks the 17th anniversary of an election won by the National League for Democracy (NLD), the party Aung San Suu Kyi helped form.

Despite a landslide victory, it was never allowed to govern in Myanmar, which has been under military rule since 1962.

Both the US and the European Union recently extended their sanctions on Myanmar for another year.

But pressure from the West is unlikely to have an effect on the junta while it has the backing of countries like India and China, which are vying for access to Myanmar's vast natural resources.

Russia has also recently defied US pressure to isolate the regime, announcing it would help set up a nuclear research centre in Myanmar.

"I don't expect pressure from India," said one European diplomat. "(And) I don't see China putting them under pressure to release The Lady now."

He said the junta also feared Aung San Suu Kyi could derail their "Road Map to Democracy", a plan treated with scorn by the United States but cautiously welcomed by some diplomats as a small sign of progress.

The NLD has boycotted the process and does not attend the long-running National Convention constitution-drafting talks.

Some diplomats say that Aung San Suu Kyi is involved in "private discussions" with the junta over the NLD joining the National Convention, which could earn her freedom or a relaxation of her detention.

But most analysts are pessimistic about her release, saying only that the junta has the capacity to surprise people.

Aung San Suu Kyi's supporters, meanwhile, remain hopeful.

"We always expect the worst but hope for the best," said Debbie Stothard, of advocacy group the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma.