Down to the wire

Tim Cone and Chot Reyes have faced each other in five previous PBA best-of-seven Finals and it’s their sixth encounter in the Commissioner’s Cup that ends at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight. Reyes leads the race with three championships, topping the 1994 Commissioner’s Cup for Purefoods, 2009 Philippine Cup for TNT and 2024 Governors’ Cup for TNT. Cone took the titles in the 1996 All-Filipino Conference for Alaska and 2012 Commissioner’s Cup for B-Meg. Of the five Finals, two went the full route with Reyes going the distance in bagging the 2009 Philippine Cup and Cone pushed to the limit in winning the 2012 Commissioner’s Cup. Tonight’s Game 7 will be their third Finals meeting in a winner-take-all situation.

Ginebra seized the momentum after dealing TNT back-to-back losses in Games 4 and 5. TNT’s meltdown in the fourth quarter of both contests was glaring. Ginebra closed out Game 4 with a 17-2 blast in the last six minutes and Game 5 with an 8-0 blitz in the final four minutes. In Game 6, TNT avoided another late collapse and hung tough with major second half adjustments to win, 87-83, and force a Game 7.

Reyes’ Game 6 adjustments were decisive. In the first half, TNT took 42.5 percent of its shots from three, converting 8-of-17 and hit 35 percent overall from the floor. Ginebra was on top at the turn, 42-38. On a positive note, TNT’s defense led to seven Ginebra turnovers but Reyes tightened the screws even more as Ginebra finished with 18 turnovers from which TNT scored 18 points.

TNT’s shifted its point of attack from the outside to the interior in the third and fourth quarters, putting pressure on Ginebra’s paint protectors. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson attacked the basket with more conviction and aggressiveness. In Game 5, RHJ took four three-point attempts and missed them all. In Game 6, he took only two. The contrast extended to the whole team. In the first half, TNT shot 28 perimeter and eight paint points. In the second half, TNT hit 10 perimeter and 26 paint points. The adjustment raised TNT’s field goal percentage to 50 percent in the second half.

Poy Erram got his vindication as he fired 10 of his 14 points in the fourth frame. It was Erram’s highest output in the Finals. He’s been the butt of the Ginebra crowd’s jeers since Game 1. His technical foul in Game 2 was a boost for Ginebra’s 71-70 win and his exit on six personals in Game 4 contributed to TNT’s downfall. In Game 5, Reyes castigated Erram for his antics during a timeout yet kept him in the starting lineup for Game 6 as a challenge to stay focused.

The barometers are clear. In TNT’s three wins, Reyes’ troops shot 40.2 percent from three with an average of 11.7 makes but in its three losses, the clip was down to 24.7 percent and an average of 7.3 makes. In Ginebra’s three wins, TNT was held to an average of 71.3 points and in its three losses, it was 89.7. If Ginebra is able to hold TNT’s three-point percentage to less than 40 percent, triple conversions to less than 10 and total output to less than 80, its chances of winning Game 7 are high. Conversely, if TNT shoots 40 percent or higher from three, drains at least 10 triples and scores 80 or more, its chances to clinch are better. But with the way both coaches have approached every game, expect adjustments along the way as Reyes did in Game 6. It’s Cone’s turn to recoil from a loss and defense will be key in Ginebra’s battleplan, particularly how to constrict RHJ’s driving room. The fight ends tonight and what a climax it will be for the Last Dance.