Greater floods feared

An international environmental group warned yesterday of greater floods, especially in coastal barangays and low-lying areas in Metro Manila and its nearby provinces, if government will not take drastic measures to arrest the degradation of the environment.

Speaking at the Kapihan sa Sulo breakfast forum, Officials of Greenpeace International revealed that climate change will result to increased recurrence and harshness of storms and rising sea levels.

Citing studies by Philippine experts in climate change, Greenpeace climate and energy campaigner Red Constantino said an accelerated one-meter sea level increase due to global warming would submerge several coastal areas of Metro Manila, including municipalities in Bulacan and Cavite. The sea level rise could possibly flood an area of 5, 555 hectares, he said.

Constantino disclosed that scientists predicted that by the 21st century, sea levels could go as high as 89 centimeters, which he said was alarming because a 30-centimeter rise can cause a retreat of shoreline by 30 meters.

"More frequent and severe storms, rising sea levels and floods are just some of the likely impacts brought about by global warming," said Constantino. "Scientists are no longer talking about whether or not climate change is happening or not. It is already happening. Scientists are now talking about how bad the impact will be."

Asian Development Bank studies showed that among the effects of climate change in the Philippines will include the immersion of hundreds of small islands, parts of reclaimed areas in Metro Manila and Cebu.

In the National Capital Region, the affected areas will be Tondo, Ermita, Quiapo, Sta. Cruz and Sampaloc in Manila and other foreshore areas in Parañaque, Las Piñas, Cavite City, Navotas, Malabon, Valenzuela and Obando, Bulacan, the studies said.

"Warm seas are the engines that drive tropical storms and fuel intensity of hurricanes. Scientists project an increase in extreme and volatile weather patterns due to global warming," Constantino explained.

According to Constantino, the Philippines is among those most vulnerable to the ill effects of climate change.

He noted that nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 1990, including 1999 and 2000. Based on the records of the World Meteorological Organization, 2001 was the second warmest year while 1998 was the hottest year since 1860.

Scientists refer to global warming as the rise in the earth’s temperature resulting from an increase in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, the great majority of which is comprised of carbon dioxide (CO2).

The UN Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change said that the biggest sources of CO2 emissions are energy utility factories and power plants that largely use coal. Coal is the most carbon intensive among fossil fuels. It emits 29 percent more carbon per unit of energy than oil and 80 percent more than gas.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societes said that unless steps are taken to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions, international aid for disasters in Asia will not be able to keep up with the impacts of global warming.

Constantino said that the impacts of climate change would hit developing countries with strained resources and economies the hardest. "The Philippine government must take an active role in protecting the climate and the economic interest of the future generations by phasing out fossil fuel use for energy beginning with coal-fired power plants," he said.

"Switching to renewable energy such as solar, modern clean biomass and wind power is a win-win solution for the Philippines. Apart from protecting the environment, it can bring in economic rewards to the country," he added.