Here’s a sampling of possible 2003 scenarios.
Death of the pay phone. Yuki Noguchi reports that in Washington, as in other parts of the US, pay phones will disappear from the landscape. The number has started to dwindle, supplanted by the more personal wireless phones that fit in a pocket. They will be relegated to the communications graveyard, as small companies that maintain them are pulling out of business realizing that it costs more to clean, maintain and service them.
Hotlines for corporate ethics services. "Call center services targeting a different type of ailment–corporate malfeasance– will be in demand," reveals Krissah Williams. This development is an offshoot of the corporate crime wave that unfolded in 2002. Talk of Enron and WorldCom. They will capitalize on the US Sarbanes-Oxley Act, passed last year to reform corporate accounting and corporate ethics. One of the law’s requirements is that companies must show they have an adequate system of protecting whistle-blowing employees who find wrongdoing in their workplaces. Companies will hire hotline operators to show they are complying with the law, and to cover themselves. It can show the Securities and Exchange Commission that a company is serious about rooting out internal corruption. It can also be a stopgap to prevent employees from reporting malfeasance to government regulators, journalists or law enforcement agencies. Most employees want to see their company do the right thing, and letting them voice their issues internally can mean in many cases that the person doesn’t feel the need to go outside the organization.
Technology that improves everyday life. Prof. Henry Petroski of Duke University suggests that we will forget the dazzling high-tech breakthroughs. At the end of 2003, he says, "it will likely be the incremental improvements in familiar everyday technologies that we will appreciate more." Here are some real possibilities–a cell phone on which calls don’t break up, a chair that’s immediately comfortable and stays that way, a toothbrush with bristles that don’t wear out, an automobile cup holder that accommodates all sizes of drinks that never spills them. Such advances in design might not make headlines, but they sure wouldn’t go unnoticed. Unfortunately, Petroski continues, "They’d also come at a price. Better cell-phone service will lead to more noise pollution. Chairs that mold themselves to our individual shapes could cause family squabbles." All of these handy items would be expensive, at least to start with. But the trade-offs are unavoidable. One step back for every two steps forward. "Isn’t that we call progress?" he asks.
Watch TV when we want to. Prof. Robert J. Thompson of Syracuse University predicts that 2003 will be the year of the digital video recorder and services like TiVo that will let us record and store everything and anything we want from TV land. They could totally change the way we watch TV. We’ve heard of this before, when the VCR came along. It allowed us to watch shows when we wanted to, rather than when they were on. Or we tape programs that go on the shelf and never get watched. We don’t have the patience to go through the TV listings and program each one into the VCR. But with a TiVo type device, we just key in "Halle Berry" and it will find everything in which she appears. It gives you a menu to retrieve them. TiVo also makes it possible to eliminate the commercials, not just fast forward through them. What will the advertising folks say to this? It’s complex to hook it up, but once done, it becomes user-friendly. We don’t have to rewind, or buy videotapes and label them. We simply access what’s stored for us. The big question is when this hits critical mass. Last year, TiVo suddenly became fodder for American stand-up comics and sitcoms. That mean’s it’s entering the public consciousness. It will be cool, we can’t do without it. "Hardly anyone has it now, but those who do say that they wouldn’t give it up for anything," Thompson comments.
Ham sandwich leads the way. Harry Balzer, VP of food consulting services for a market research firm, and a regular watcher of how people eat in America, narrates that the primary cook in this country, and perhaps, in the entire world, will remain a woman. And she is going to do all she can to get out of the job. We started with the microwave oven, then the barbecue grill, then restaurants. Her last ditch effort will be to get rid of her cookware. In 2003, Balzer relates, "The most common entrée women will order in restaurants will be a burger. The fast food chains will introduce a new burger with women in mind. Previous new burgers had always been the big, the double, and the triple-sized. This will be a petite burger with a name that can’t be pronounced by males." The absence of fruit is the greatest difference between a healthy and an unhealthy diet anywhere, so fast food restaurants will put fruits on the meal menus. And finally Balzer concludes, "the number one sandwich this year will be a ham sandwich." He knows that because, as he insists, "that’s been the number one sandwich for the last 30 years." What we don’t know is what kind of bread it will be served on.
There are no bad foods, only bad portions. Shannon Brown points out that the direction for serving in restaurants and fast food outlets is toward what nutritional policymakers are calling "smart sizing." Or at least it should be obvious, if food purveyors cared as much about helping their customers slim down as they would have customers believe. For example, instead of urging people to "Get Active, Stay Active," Pepsi-Cola’s new criticism deflecting slogan, why not bring back the 6.5 ounce softdrinks of the ’40s and ’50s? Or imagine the day when McDonald’s advertises Le Petit Mac, made with high grade beef, a delicious whole grain bun and endorsed, by say, Serena Williams or Britney Spears. One way or another, Brown emphasizes, "as Americans wake up to the fact that obesity is killing nearly as many citizens as cigarettes are, jumbo burgers, and super-size fries will seem like less of a bargain."
Resistance to an imminent war. The opposition to the threatening US-Iraq war is vital and growing. Ursula K. Le Guin, novelist, essayist and poet, reproaches, "It took years for resistance to the Vietnam War to gather momentum. This time, the peace movement is broad and strong, though the killing has not started yet." And as Le Guin contends, "The media are failing to take it seriously. They are undercounting demonstrators, marginalizing dissent, and discounting or diminishing popular opposition to radical policies such as the pre-emptive strike in Iraq." What people felt after 9/11, Le Guin believes, was grief, and anger, not fear, hatred and vengefulness. This voice of dissent is what she hopes President George W. Bush will hear loud and clear.