Typhoon 'Emong' may intensify ahead of Ilocos landfall on July 25

MANILA, Philippines (2nd Update: 3:50 p.m.) — Typhoon “Emong” may pick up a bit more strength before making landfall over La Union or Ilocos Sur early Friday, July 25, PAGASA said. Wind Signal No. 3 remains the highest alert for now, though Signal No. 4 may still be raised.

In its 11 p.m. bulletin on Thursday, July 24, the state weather bureau said Typhoon Emong is expected to gain speed as it moves northeastward by evening, ahead of its landfall in La Union or Ilocos Sur the next day.

Favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions may also allow the typhoon to “briefly intensify” before it hits land.

However, PAGASA said Emong may start to weaken once it encounters more land while traversing northwestern Luzon.

“Nevertheless, passage of Emong will trigger a weakening trend, which is expected to continue for the rest of the forecast period,” the state weather bureau said.  

What to watch out for. There is also a possibility that the typhoon will shift closer to the coastal waters of Pangasinan between Thursday night and early Friday, prior to landfall.

Once it moves past the mountains of northwestern Luzon, Emong is forecast to accelerate northeast over the Luzon Strait and the Philippine Sea near Taiwan.

After coming aground in La Union, Ilocos Sur or Ilocos Norte early Friday, the typhoon is projected to track over the Babuyan Islands and Batanes between late morning and evening, with a chance of making landfall over the province as well.

Speed. As of 2 p.m., Typhoon Emong was spotted 175 kilometers west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan, with peak winds of 120 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of up to 150 kph.

PAGASA said it is "currently almost stationary." 

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm “Dante” was last located 735 meters east northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kph and gustiness reaching 90 kph. 

Wind signals

As of 2 p.m., PAGASA has raised Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals over various areas in Luzon due to Emong. No wind signals have been raised due to Dante.

Signal No. 3  

• The northern portion of Pangasinan (Anda, Bolinao, Bani)
• the western portion of La Union (Luna, Balaoan, Bacnotan, San Juan, City of San Fernando, Bauang, Caba, Bangar)   
• western portion of Ilocos Sur (San Esteban, Santiago, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Santa Cruz, Tagudin, Santo Domingo, Cabugao, Sinait, Magsingal, San Juan, Bantay, San Vicente, San Ildefonso, Santa Catalina, City of Vigan, Caoayan, Santa, Narvacan, Santa Maria, Nagbukel, Burgos, Banayoyo) 
• western portion of Abra (San Quintin, Langiden) 

Winds between 89 and 117 kph are expected within 18 hours in areas under Signal No. 3, posing a notable threat to safety and infrastructure.

Signal No. 2

• Ilocos Norte
• the rest of Ilocos Sur
• the rest of La Union
• the central portion of Pangasinan (Agno, Burgos, Mabini, City of Alaminos, Sual, Labrador, Bugallon, Infanta, Dasol, Lingayen, Binmaley, Dagupan City, Calasiao, Santa Barbara, Mangaldan, Mapandan, Manaoag, Laoac, Binalonan, San Manuel, San Nicolas, Pozorrubio, Sison, San Fabian, San Jacinto)
• the rest of Abra
• Kalinga???????
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• Babuyan Islands
• the northern and western portion of mainland Cagayan (Rizal, Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Allacapan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Lasam, Santo Niño, Piat, Tuao)
• the western portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kayapa, Santa Fe)

Within 24 hours, areas under this wind signal are likely to be affected by gale-force winds of 62 to 88 kph, which may bring minor to moderate hazards to life and property.

Signal No. 1

• Batanes
• the rest of Cagayan
• the western and central portions of Isabela (Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Quezon, Mallig, Quirino, Roxas, San Manuel, Aurora, San Mateo, Ramon, Cordon, Burgos, Cabatuan, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Tumauini, Gamu, Luna, Maconacon, Alicia, San Mariano, Naguilian, San Guillermo, City of Cauayan, Echague, Ilagan City, Angadanan, Benito Soliven, City of Santiago, Reina Mercedes, San Agustin, Divilacan, San Isidro, Jones) 
• the rest of Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• the rest of Pangasinan
• the northern and central portions of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria,  Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan)
• Tarlac
• the western and central portions of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, Talugtug, Cuyapo, Nampicuan, Guimba, Science City of Muñoz, San Jose City, Pantabangan, Rizal, Llanera, Talavera, Santo Domingo, Quezon, Licab, Aliaga, Zaragoza, San Antonio, Jaen, Cabanatuan City, Santa Rosa, General Mamerto Natividad, Palayan City, Bongabon, Laur)

Areas under Wind Signal No. 1 are expected to experience winds of 39 to 61 kph within the next 36 hours, with intermittent rains. Emong may cause slight to no damage to structures, but may cause significant damage to agricultural crops. 

While only Signal No. 3 has been raised so far, PAGASA said areas near Emong’s eye could be placed under Signal No. 4 if conditions warrant.

Sea conditions

The state weather bureau has warned of very rough to high seas up to 14.0 meters over coastal waters along the western seaboards of northern and central Luzon, including Ilocos Sur, La Union and Pangasinan. 

Sea travel is risky for all vessel types, with mariners in these provinces advised to remain in port or seek shelter. 

Meanwhile, moderate to rough seas will prevail in many other seaboards across Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, making conditions dangerous especially for small boats and motorbancas.

Storm surge. PAGASA also issued storm surge warnings of up to 2 meters along low-lying or exposed coastal areas in Batanes, Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan and Zambales within the next 36 hours.

A gale warning remains raised over the western seaboards of Luzon.

Forecast track

Typhoon Emong is moving south southeastward slowly as it makes a loop over the Ilocos Region due to the Fujiwhara effect influenced by Tropical Storm “Dante.”

It is anticipated to accelerate over northern Luzon but weaken into a severe tropical storm on Friday, while Dante is forecast to move west northwestward toward Ryukyu Islands. 

PAGASA expected Dante to exit the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Emong, on the other hand, will likely leave PAR as a low pressure area by Saturday, July 26. 

Both storms are enhancing the southwest monsoon, or habagat, which has been dumping heavy rain in most parts of Luzon and some areas in Visayas.