El Niño ‘wrecking ball’ could cause record temperature rise – UN

MANILA, Philippines —The El Niño weather pattern could cause a record rise in ocean temperatures in the Pacific as it barrels around the globe like a “wrecking ball,” causing floods and droughts, United Nations officials warned on Wednesday. 

The new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) seasonal outlook predicted the El Niño event would become extremely strong, with temperatures in the central Pacific rising about 3.8 degrees Celsius above normal between November and January, peaking around December.

The WMO and the UN Undersecretary-General for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, Tom Fletcher, called for urgent action to get ready. 

“This El Niño is the behemoth, it is a wrecking ball. It will tear thr ough Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific with extreme heat, droughts and flood,” Fletcher said, warning of massive humanitarian
 consequences.

Some 50 million people could face increased hunger, he said. 

“We have not seen in our records 3.8. We have seen around 3.0 in some record El Niños before, with very substantive impacts across the world. So we are beyond that limit,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.

In Southeast Asia, warmer conditions and a lack of rainfall could impact agriculture and water supplies, while Latin America could see increased rainfall, according to the WMO. 

El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle – a climate pattern that influences weather around the world. 

It tends to cause higher global temperatures and disrupt rainfall patterns across large regions, meaning drought in some areas and heavy rains in others.

It is a natural climate pattern and is not caused by climate change. However, global warming can make El Niños more intense. 

El Niño-linked weather extremes could worsen pressure on housing, water, sanitation and health services, with flooding risks rising in southern Africa from November, the WMO said.

A strong to very strong El Niño is expected to persist through the first half of 2027 while most parts of the country will have significant reduction of rainfall of more than 60 percent, according to Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section.

At a press briefing led by UN agencies yesterday, section chief Ana Liza Solis said the most vulnerable areas situated along the western section of the country, including Panay and Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan) areas, were the first provinces that experienced significant rainfall reduction.

UN agencies working on disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation, food security, resilience and human mobility held a joint briefing to raise public awareness and encourage proactive, coordinated government action before the severe climate impact escalates. 

“Come first quarter of 2027 they will still be experiencing prolonged dry spells. And added to that, most areas of the Visayas and Mindanao will be experiencing prolonged dry spell and drought as well,” Solis said. 

“Proactive preparation is essential for protecting our economy, sustaining business operations and safeguarding the well-being of our communities,” Solis said. 

“Localized thunderstorms, low-pressure areas and tropical cyclones may bring episodic rainfall, although overall rainfall volumes are expected to be suppressed nationwide,” she said.

In the Oct. 19 assessment, most areas in the country experienced below-to-near-normal rainfall conditions. Nine provinces are currently experiencing meteorological drought, with 30 under dry spells and 14 facing dry conditions, particularly in Bicol, eastern Visayas and a large portion in Mindanao.  

She said businesses must shift from reactive responses to proactive science-based strategies.

Environment Secretary Juan Miguel Cuna urged the public to report leaks in order to reduce water wastage amid the “very strong” El Niño. 

In an interview with ABS-CBN News, Cuna said water concessionaires and the Local Water Utilities Administration are stepping up efforts to locate leaks.

Citing figures from the geographic information system, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources has identified around 14,000 barangays nationwide as priority areas for preparedness measures. 

“The areas that stood out are Mindoro, Isabela and Masbate. To augment the existing supply, we are looking into re-energizing deep wells previously operational but have since been decommissioned,” Cuna said.  

“Secondly, we have small water impounding systems – structures – in various locations,” he added.

Around P8.57 billion in damage to agriculture has been recorded amid the El Niño phenomenon, according to the Department of Agriculture. 

Among the regions affected are the Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Davao Region, Soccsksargen and Caraga. 

Among the goods with damage and losses reported are rice, corn, cassava, high value crops and livestock and poultry 

Around 288,058 farmers are affected covering 291,154 hectares of agricultural land and 220,307 metric tons of production losses incurred. 

Reported production losses due to El Niño for rice are at 71,408 metric tons, equivalent to 0.73 percent of its target production of 9.7 million MT for the second semester of 2026. 

For corn, reported production losses have reached 132,290 MT, equivalent to around 1.50 percent of its target production of 8.8 million MT for 2026.

 The National Irrigation Administration-La Union is preparing additional measures to mitigate the potential impact of a very strong El Niño on agricultural production in the province, with irrigation coverage expected to shrink sharply due to water shortages.

Jay Cariño, acting engineering section chief of NIA-LU, said 1,734 hectares of farmland in the province are highly vulnerable to drought, including 974 hectares in the first district and 760 hectares in the second district. 

Of the 4,518 hectares covered by the national irrigation system, only about 1,700 hectares are expected to receive sufficient irrigation. 

Under communal irrigation systems, just 912 of approximately 7,600 hectares may remain irrigated.

The projections mean only about 38 percent of national irrigation system coverage and 12 percent of communal system may retain sufficient irrigation. 

Meanwhile, construction of the San Felipe Small Reservoir Irrigation Project in San Juan, La Union is ongoing. The project is expected to irrigate 600 hectares in San Juan and Bacnotan towns once completed. 

Cariño urged farmers, local government units and partner agencies to coordinate efforts to minimize El Niño’s impact on agricultural production. – Artemio Dumlao