Plunder cases could flip Senate to minority within weeks, Lacson says

MANILA, Philippines — Two looming plunder cases against majority senators could collapse the bloc that controls the Senate and hand de-facto power to the minority within weeks, Sen. Ping Lacson said Thursday, May 28.

Speaking on ANC's "Headstart," Lacson explained the numbers game that would give his side control of key committees even as they do not yet have the numbers to change the Senate president.

The majority bloc supporting Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano effectively numbers 12, because Sen. Bato dela Rosa has gone into hiding to dodge an International Criminal Court warrant. The minority — which brands itself "Solid Bloc 11" — sits at 11. 

Lacson stated that if warrants are issued for two majority senators, the ratio would become 11 against 10, giving the minority a one-member edge and effective control of the Senate.

Ombudsman Jesus Crispin Remulla said this week he expected to file plunder and malversation charges against Sen. Jinggoy Estrada before the Sandiganbayan on Thursday morning. "Give 24 to 48 hours, baka ma-issue ng warrant," Lacson said. 

If Estrada is detained by Monday, the floor splits 11 to 11, Lacson said, and the majority can no longer assemble the 13 senators needed to force a quorum and ram through a vote.

The turning point comes if a second case follows. Remulla said the same day that a separate plunder complaint against Sen. Joel Villanueva is "ripe" and could be filed within two weeks. 

Should Villanueva also be served, Lacson said, the count becomes 11 for the minority against 10 for the majority.

"Effectively we will be the majority," he said.

At that point, Lacson said, the bloc would move to declare every committee chairmanship vacant and re-elect the chairs.  

"It takes 13 votes to elect a Senate president," Lacson explained, but "it only takes a simple majority to elect the chairman or the [members] of the committee."

A hypothetical scenario. Lacson was careful to say that the entire scenario was hypothetical, and he said the minority bloc took no pleasure in the prospect of an arrest being made to one of his colleagues. "We're not praying, we're not hoping that one or two or three of our colleagues would go to jail," he said. 

Most of the senators facing charges, he noted, are his friends.

Walkout was Sotto's idea

The walkout by minority senators on Tuesday was Sotto's idea, Lacson said, hatched in real time as the majority pressed to force a vote on Marcoleta's motion to let senators join sessions by teleconference. 

After Cayetano repeatedly moved to "divide the house" — which means to call a vote — it was Sotto who thought of walking out, Lacson said, and Zubiri who moved to do it.

Their exit left Sotto as the lone minority senator remaining. The chamber at the time had dropped to just 12 senators, one short of the 13 needed to proceed, since majority Senators Chiz Escudero and Dela Rosa were not present.  

At present, Senate rules permit remote sessions only under emergency conditions and bar counting an absent senator's vote. 

Marcoleta's amendment is meant to loosen that rule to allow a remote vote "for justifiable reasons" — a change the minority suspects is tailored to let dela Rosa, and any senator later facing arrest, keep voting from outside the chamber.  

Hanging over the entire dispute is the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, set to begin July 6. 

The same May 11 vote that installed Cayetano was widely read as a move to shield Duterte.

Convicting the vice president requires 16 of 24 senators, and her allies, who dominate the new majority, need only to keep the count below that. Dela Rosa is one of those allies. 

However, Lacson argued the maneuver is pointless. He said that because two-thirds is an absolute number, the threshold to convict stays at 16 no matter how many senators are unavailable, and an abstention counts the same as an acquittal. 

"Hindi naman sinabing zero dapat ang mag-acquit," he said. "Ang sinabi 16 dapat ang mag-convict."