VP Sara lead shrinks, Leni up in presidential poll

MANILA, Philippines — Vice President Sara Duterte remains the most preferred candidate for president in 2028 even as opposition support began to coalesce around Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, a recent survey by the OCTA Research group showed.

OCTA released yesterday the results of its non-commissioned presidential preference poll conducted from March 19 to 25.

Some 33 percent of the respondents said they would support Duterte if the elections were held during the survey period, down five points from 38 percent in the last quarter of 2025.

Support for Robredo, meanwhile, surged by 13 points to 21 percent.

The survey was conducted a month before the Naga City mayor categorically stated that she will not run for a national post in 2028.

Robredo, in an interview with local radio Asintado sa Radyo on Wednesday, said she already made the decision a long time ago.

“It is clear that this is where I will retire,” she said, referring to Naga City.

“I think we should move away from the mentality that there is a single savior, because there really isn’t one. No one has a monopoly on capability… As for me, I’ve already seen my own limitations. It seems that I’m really better suited here in local,” Robredo added.

OCTA said their survey included a list of 26 potential presidential contenders.

Manila Mayor Isko Moreno was the preferred choice of 10 percent (up from eight percent), while Sen. Raffy Tulfo was selected by nine percent (down from 12 percent).

Sen. Bam Aquino was fifth with the support of four percent of the respondents (similar from the previous poll).

The remaining respondents were divided among the rest of the names on the list, which OCTA did not release. Three percent were undecided.

“Taken together, these findings suggest a more competitive and evolving preference landscape, but not a settled or predictive outcome,” OCTA said.

“Be that as it may, it is important to emphasize that these results reflect a hypothetical and early-stage preference measure, and are not predictive of actual electoral outcomes. Rather, they provide a snapshot of current public sentiment, which may evolve as political conditions, candidate positioning, alliances and national issues develop,” it added.

Sen. Francis Pangilinan – whom Robredo named as one of five potential 2028 presidential candidates – yesterday thanked the former vice president for her endorsement and said he is still hoping she changes her mind about not running.

The senator ran as Robredo’s vice presidential running mate in the 2022 elections, which they both lost.

“Thank you for the trust, but my position is – since it’s still early and I’ve already done a lot in 2022 and 2025 – I am hoping she will reconsider her decision not to run,” Pangilinan said.

Robredo had previously pointed at Pangilinan, Aquino, Sen. Risa Hontiveros and Mayors Joy Belmonte and Vico Sotto as potential 2028 presidential candidates.

Pangilinan believes Robredo is still their best candidate for president, and lamented that Robredo’s decision not to run could “lead to disunity” in their ranks and also “splinter” their potential allies. — Marc Jayson Cayabyab