La Niña confirmed; more rain, floods

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has confirmed the onset of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, warning of above-normal rainfall and heightened risks of flooding and landslides across parts of the country in the coming months.
In a statement issued Friday, PAGASA said cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific – first observed in August – have persisted and strengthened, reaching the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C sea surface temperature anomaly in September 2025.
“Periods of cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that started in August 2025 continue to persist and further strengthened, reaching La Niña conditions threshold,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said.
La Niña is declared when the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly falls to -0.5°C or lower, with projections indicating that the three-month average anomaly will remain at or below that threshold.
According to PAGASA, several climate models suggest that La Niña conditions will persist at least until the December–February 2025-2026 season.
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