SWS: Bong Go rises past Erwin Tulfo, while 9 Alyansa bets stay strong in Senate race

MANILA, Philippines — Less than a month left before the May 12 elections, an April survey shows most admin bets holding their spots in the top 12. A few Duterte-backed candidates, however, are climbing fast.

The Social Weather Stations (SWS), commissioned by Stratbase Group, released a survey on Monday, April 21, suggesting that incumbent Sen. Bong Go, an ally of former President Rodrigo Duterte, has clung to the top spot, with 45% of respondents saying they would vote for him.

Go's climb to the top has displaced administration bet Rep. Erwin Tulfo (ACT-CIS Party-list), who dominated the rankings from December 2024 to February 2025.

In March, the two were neck and neck, both garnering 42%. In the latest poll, Tulfo's support increased by just 1 percentage point, while Go's surged by 3 percentage points.

Since December, however, Tulfo's support has fallen by 2 percentage points, while Go has steadily gained ground, rising from 32% to 45%.

Like Go, whose support in SWS surveys has risen sharply since December, incumbent Sen. Bato dela Rosa — another Duterte ally — has also seen a significant boost, climbing 11 percentage points from 21% to 32%.

Previously hovering between 12th and 14th place, Dela Rosa now ranks 6th in the Senate race. 

Both he and Go saw their numbers move in their favor during the period when Vice President Sara Duterte faced impeachment and Rodrigo was arrested by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

RELATED: Duterte allies rise in Senate poll, but 3 in 5 Filipinos still back ICC case

Admin bets steady, some climbing

Aside from Tulfo, eight other senatorial candidates of the Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas — or admin slate — also remain within the magic circle, including former senators Lito Lapid, Tito Sotto, Ping Lacson and Manny Pacquiao, incumbent Sens. Pia Cayetano and Bong Revilla, Makati Mayor Abby Binay, and Rep. Camille Villar.

Not all of them, however, were able to maintain or grow the support they received in December. Like Tulfo, Revilla saw a 2 percentage point decrease in votes in April, while Lacson and Pacquiao each experienced a 1 percentage point decline.

The latter two are now barely holding on at ranks 11 and 12, with Willie Revillame and incumbent Sen. Imee Marcos trailing just 1 to 2 percentage points behind. 

The administration candidate who saw the largest growth in support since December is Lapid, with an 11-percentage point increase, rising from 23% to 34%. He currently ranks third in the SWS survey. 

He is followed by Villar, recently endorsed by the vice president, who climbed seven percentage points since December and now ranks 10th with 28%. Binay also gained four points over the same period, placing 9th with 29%.

Imee’s numbers slightly recover 

Like Villar, Imee is part of the Alyansa slate, but she has long distanced herself from the alliance and her brother’s administration, aligning more closely with the Dutertes.

It was during the period of her significant drop in support that Imee appeared to lean more openly toward the Dutertes, particularly as they faced impeachment and charges of crimes against humanity.

Her numbers fell from 24% in February to 19% in March, before recovering to 24% in April.

Opposition’s chances

Several left-leaning opposition candidates remain far from the Top 12, with the highest-ranked being Rep. France Castro (ACT Teachers Party-list) of the Makabayan bloc, who currently sits at 30th place with 4%, down from 25th in December.

Meanwhile, candidates with liberal leanings show strong potential, according to the poll. Former Sens. Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino are now ranked around 15th to 16th, with Pangilinan’s numbers slightly lower than in March.

In surveys by other polling firms, both are closer to breaking into the magic circle. Since December, Aquino has seen a 4 percentage point increase, while Pangilinan has gained 1 percentage point.

The SWS poll was conducted from April 11 to 15, surveying 1,800 Filipino adults nationwide, with a sampling margin of error of ±2.31%.

National and local candidates have until May 10 to campaign, leaving just under 20 days.