Taiwan risks paying a price for Trump win, say analysts

Washington has long been Taipei's most important backer and biggest arms supplier -- angering Beijing, which claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who has riled Beijing with his outspoken defense of the island's sovereignty, congratulated Trump on his impending return to the White House.

He expressed confidence that US-Taiwan relations would continue to "serve as a cornerstone for regional stability".

But Trump caused jitters on the campaign trail by suggesting Taiwan should pay the United States for its defense, and accusing the island of stealing the US semiconductor industry.

The Trump administration's policy on Taiwan was "highly uncertain", said Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group.

"On the one hand, the Trump administration could make continued US support to Taiwan conditional on Taiwan paying more for its defense," Hsiao told AFP.

"Alternatively, a Trump administration could decide to elevate the US-Taiwan relationship to new heights in ways that significantly raises tensions with China."

China, which massively outguns Taiwan, has refused to renounce the use of force to bring the island of 23 million people under its control.

Military pressure

Under President Xi Jinping, who has described "unification" of Taiwan with China as "inevitable", Beijing has dialed up military pressure on Taipei, regularly deploying fighter jets and warships around the island.

CIA director William Burns said last year that Xi had ordered his military to be ready to carry out a successful invasion of the island by 2027.

While the United States is legally obliged to sell arms to Taiwan, Washington has long-maintained a so-called "strategic ambiguity" when it comes to putting boots on the ground to defend the island.

The United States has sold Taiwan billions of dollars worth of arms, including F-16 fighter jets and warships, over the past five decades.

Under pressure to spend more on its own security, Taipei allocated a record $19 billion on defense for 2024 and next year's budget is set to hit a new high.

Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo said Tuesday that Taipei was "determined to continuously strengthen our self-defense capabilities" and this should be made clear to whoever wins the US presidential election.

Despite strong bipartisan support in the US Congress for Taiwan, there are fears Trump might not consider the island worth defending if China attacked.

If Trump wages a trade war with China, Taiwan could get stuck in the middle, said National Taipei University political analyst Liu Jia-wei.

Bargaining chip

"Taiwan will be discussed as a bargaining chip for the sake of more American interests," she told AFP.

Any miscalculation by a future Trump administration could be costly.

"I hope he (Trump) understands the nuances of the Taiwan issue, as... this is the one issue that could bring us into direct and catastrophic military conflict," said Susan Thornton, a former senior US diplomat who served in the first Trump administration.

Outwardly at least Taiwan is not showing concern.

A senior Taiwanese foreign affairs official told AFP Thursday that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party had already experienced three US administrations.

Despite the "different styles and policy orientations" of Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden, Taiwan-US collaboration had only deepened, the official said.

Diplomatically, Trump's disdain for multilateralism could leave Taiwan more isolated on the international stage where China has blocked Taipei from global bodies and methodically poached its diplomatic allies.

"I do not think it's likely that Trump will stand up for Taiwan's participation in international institutions as he typically doesn't see much value in those institutions," said Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

While only 12 countries, including the Vatican, recognize Taiwan's claim to statehood, many others maintain close but informal relations with the island.

Some might be reluctant to come out in support of Taiwan if the United States were not leading the way.

"Safety in numbers comes from US' unambiguous leadership," said Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, who is based in Taipei.

"I am not sure if we have that anymore."