DENR, DND conduct review of ‘big one’ master plan

MANILA, Philippines — A thorough review of the master plan is being done by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) and the Department of National Defense (DND) after an official of the United Nations said that the Philippines must prepare for the eventuality of a “big one.”

“I have been saying that the master plan for the big one needs to be reviewed. We need to update our exposure and vulnerability data and we need to anticipate the economic cost of what it would be, what would it take to recover,” Environment Secretary Maria Antonia Yulo-Loyzaga said in a chance interview during the opening of the five-day Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference for Disaster Risk Reduction at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City.

The serious threat of super typhoons, volcanoes and earthquakes, exacerbated by climate change, compels the Philippines to prepare for the eventuality of a “big one,” according to UN coordinator in the Philippines Gustavo González.

“We are in discussion with the Office of Civil Defense and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and (Defense) Secretary (Gilbert) Teodoro to see how we can conduct a thorough review,” Loyzaga said.

She cited the case of Japan, where preparations are being made in case a strong earthquake jolts the country.

“They have a scenario where the Nankai Trough (Faultline) will move and it will be of such magnitude that the economic cost will be very severe for the country. In Japan, however, they also have a pre-disaster recovery plan, for the reconstruction of the city of Tokyo and major centers so this is something we hope (to replicate),” she said.

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) Director Teresito Bacolcol has said that the West Valley Fault is already ripe for another major quake.

Bacolcol has warned that at least 34,000 deaths and 114,000 injuries are expected if Metro Manila will be hit by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake.

He said that the last time the West Valley Fault moved was in 1658. He added that based on the study, the recurrence interval is between 400 and 600 years.

He added that under a magnitude 7.2 quake, intensity 8 is expected to be felt in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.

Based on the study in 2004, the West Valley Fault is capable of generating a magnitude 7.2 earthquake, according to the Phivolcs chief.

He said the extent of the damage of the magnitude 7.2 earthquake would depend on the distance of the epicenter.