‘Retail prices of rice can surpass 1998 crisis level’

MANILA, Philippines — The present high retail prices of rice are comparable to the 1998 rice crisis and can even surpass that level amid the continued spike in prices of the grains, Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) national manager Raul Montemayor said yesterday.

Montemayor earlier also warned of a repeat of the rice crisis in 2018 during the Duterte administration.

“During the rice crisis in October 2018, the highest retail price of regular milled rice was P46.19 per kilo and well-milled rice was P49.44 per kilo. We are now at that level and the peak harvest season will still be in October,” Montemayor said in an interview with The STAR.

While it is understandable that the government does not want to create panic, unless necessary actions are made “it (rice crisis) will blow up in their face and will affect President Marcos,” he added.

Montemayor noted that even if there is still supply of rice in the market, the price spike in the last few weeks already reached P7 per kilo.

He said there was an abrupt increase in the farmgate price of palay. From P23, it became P30, then P34 and now traders are procuring at P37 per kilo, which means that rice millers are willing to pay higher farmgate prices as they take advantage of the lean months.

“If the farmgate price of palay is P34 per kilo, the retail price of rice will range between P65 and P70 per kilo for premium grade. The retail price of regular milled rice is going up because a spike in the premium grade is influencing it,” he noted.

Montemayor said that National Food Authority Administrator Robert Bioco also wrote a confidential memorandum to Marcos in April regarding a possible shortage of rice.

“We (Montemayor and Bioco) have the same forecast. The DA does not want to admit that there is a problem, as it will prove that they failed with their programs. That’s my reading but they need to face the problem head on and tell the truth. If the problem (in the rice supply and prices) will persist in September, they will be faulted,” he said.

The FFF official recalled that when the rice crisis hit in 2018, the government allowed immediate importation.

“When the importation was made, the retail prices of rice immediately went down. This time, the private sector does not want to import while the government is barred from importing so we are in a difficult situation,” Montemayor added.

According to Montemayor, there is also a possibility that the country will have a shortage in water for irrigation amid the threat of the El Niño phenomenon.

He said that while the importers committed at least 300,000 metric tons of rice, a deficit is still expected, as the country needs at least 700,000 metric tons in September.

Montemayor said that officials of the DA may not be giving the actual data to the President after he gave assurance on the country’s rice supply.

“Officials should issue statements without connecting it to possible shortages like stop wasting rice, and eat alternative food like sweet potato. There are no messages to conserve rice. Their message was only ‘don’t worry, we have enough stocks,’” he said.

Montemayor said that as early as April 2023, he stressed the need to import at least two million metric tons (MT) of rice by June 2023 to ensure 60 days of rice inventory.

“As of July, the total imports only reached 1.9 million MT and by August 1, the inventory was only 39 days,” he noted.

Montemayor warned that hunger will further go up amid the spike in retail prices of rice.