Duterte, Tulfo lead Senate bets for 2025 polls – survey

MANILA, Philippines — Pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS) on Tuesday night confirmed that it conducted a commissioned aided survey on voting preferences for senator, with former social welfare secretary Erwin Tulfo and former president Rodrigo Duterte topping the poll.

Conducted two years before the 2025 midterm elections, the April 15 to 18 survey showed the leading list of personalities whom respondents said they would most likely vote for senator.

Unlike the results of the “unaided” survey released over the weekend, the new poll – also commissioned by former LPGMA party-list representative Arnel Ty – gave the respondents a list of 100 individuals listed in alphabetical order based on surname, from which they can choose up to 12 names.

Following Tulfo and Duterte are Sens. Pia Cayetano and Bong Go, former senator and boxing legend Manny Pacquiao, Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto, Sen. Imee Marcos, former Senate president Vicente Sotto III, Sen. Lito Lapid, former senator Panfilo Lacson, former vice president Jejomar Binay and former Manila mayor Isko Moreno.

Outside the so-called Magic 12 were Sen. Bong Revilla, former interior secretary and senator Mar Roxas, former senator Gringo Honasan, former vice president Leni Robredo, Social Welfare Secretary Rex Gatchalian, former vice president Noli de Castro, Sen. Ronald dela Rosa, former senators Francis Pangilinan and Franklin Drilon, former Quezon City mayor Herbert Bautista and Interior Secretary Benhur Abalos.

Trailing them were lawyer Chel Diokno, Ormoc City Mayor Richard Gomez, former senators Bam Aquino and Ralph Recto, former police chief Guillermo Eleazar, former senator Richard Gordon, former president and House Deputy Speaker Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Sen. Francis Tolentino and former senator Serge Osmeña III.

The results of the aided survey slightly varied from the unaided poll, the results of which were confirmed by SWS last weekend.

In the unaided survey, no list of names was provided to the respondents.

Leading that list was Pacquiao, followed by Revilla, former senator Sotto, Go, former Senate president Manny Villar, Lapid, Dela Rosa, Marcos, Tulfo, Duterte, Lacson and Cayetano.

Statistically tied for 13th to 31st places were Moreno, Robredo, Binay, Diokno, Trillanes, Pangilinan, Mayor Sotto, Tolentino, Gordon, former presidential spokesman Harry Roque, lawyer Larry Gadon, Aquino, Roxas, television host Willie Revillame, doctor Willie Ong, Drilon, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Honasan and Bautista.

The difference in the survey results may be due to the high number of respondents who included ineligible candidates, such as recently elected or term-limited senators, in the unaided poll.

For instance, Senators Raffy Tulfo and Robin Padilla were chosen by 28 percent and 21 percent of respondents, respectively, significantly higher than Pacquiao’s seven percent.

Tulfo and Padilla ranked third and first, respectively, in last year’s polls.

SWS said the commissioned survey had 1,200 adult respondents and a margin of error of +/- three percent.