'We're not out of the woods yet,' OCTA says in calling for MECQ extension

MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research on Wednesday backed an extension of the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in 'NCR Plus' by May, saying another week or two could stabilize the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the country.

In a Laging Handa briefing, OCTA fellow Ranjit Rye said stretching the MECQ could give longer time to open more quarantine facilities, hire additional health workers and expand hospital capacity.

"That's why we're asking for additional week or more for MECQ, to give time for national and local governments to implement interventions," he said, partly in Filipino. "It's very clear that the sad experience we have with this terrible surge is the need for expanded testing, tracing and isolation."

Rye said at least 2,000 additional infections in Metro Manila could be manageable based on their studies. At present, the capital region is still averaging 3,500 but this has already decreased from 5,500 previously.

He added that the panel of experts understands the need to also allow more workers get back on their jobs in balancing health and the economy. OCTA said that if government will permit more establishments to resume, it should be on those that will not add more risk to the virus' transmission.

"We saw a slight decrease this week but we're not out of the woods yet," Rye said. "This can be reversed if we are not careful, and if cases surge again, it will be more difficult to deal with as our hospitals are still full."

Earlier today, Metro Manila mayors agreed to relax further curfew hours in the capital region, or between 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. starting May 1. This, however, can still be changed depending on President Rodrigo Duterte's final decision, which the Palace said could by announced tonight. 

Local chief executives also deferred to the President on the quarantine status of Metro Manila. It was returned to ECQ in late March, and shifted to MECQ by mid-April.

Prof. Guido David, another OCTA fellow, said the reproduction rate in Metro Manila is now at 0.85 from more than 2 in recent weeks. This refers to how many persons a COVID-19 positive individual can infect. 

The positivity rate in NCR has also gone down to 18%, he said. Still, hospitals here could see easing in its occupancy when daily cases are reduced to less than 2,800.

Data from the Department of Health as of April 26 showed bed occupancy in Metro Manila at 61.9%, or 6,009 beds occupied out of 9,701 in total. ICU bed occupancy is also at 69.25%, isolation beds at 59.24% and ward beds at 64.46%.

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