What Luzon quarantine could look like after April 30, according to UP experts

MANILA, Philippines — President Rodrigo Duterte is expected to decide on Thursday on whether to extend the enhanced community quarantine in Luzon beyond its April 30 end date or implement alternatives like a relaxed or modified quarantine and partial lifting in particular areas.

With post-April 30 scenarios still being deliberated by the administration, here’s what researchers from the University of the Philippines have recommended to give you an idea of what the coming weeks hold.

1. ECQ will be extended in NCR, other regions to sustain curve-flattening

In a policy report released Wednesday night, UP experts said that the national government should consider extending the ECQ — as we know it — beyond April 30 to avoid reversing gains made over the past weeks.

“We wish to emphasize that we are faced with a choice not between the economy or public health (lives vs livelihood) but between a less or more costly disruption among ordinary Filipinos....if we lift the ECQ prematurely, we may be faced with another wave or a surge in the transmission that is certain to squander our gains forcing us to make further costly interventions and increasing the total economic cost and the number of lives lost,” read the Wednesday report.

Lifting the ECQ on April 30 would result in a projected 80,000 COVID-19 cases and 3,800 deaths in the capital region by May in one mathematical scenario.

"The indicators are positive in NCR, Batangas and Rizal. Further monitoring is needed and continuation of the enhanced community quarantine is advised, especially in Cavite, Laguna and Quezon," the authors wrote.

Further monitoring and quarantine extension have similarly been recommended over Region III (Central Luzon) and Region IV-A (Calabarzon).

2. Conditionally relaxing quarantine rules in some provinces outside NCR

Meanwhile, the relaxation of lockdown measures in certain provinces outside Metro Manila may be considered by the national government, according to the report, if certain conditions are met.

The said provinces must achieve mass testing capacity with facilities that have a reasonable turnaround time to diagnose probable and suspected cases, an effective and efficient contact tracing system that identifies and quarantines even asymptomatic individuals exposed to COVID-19, adequate health care capacity and a declining trend in new cases would need to be observed for a two-week period while mass testing is being conducted.

“Given these parameters, provinces are encouraged not to lift the EQC until such time that these are met,” the UP researchers recommended.

3. Resuming economic activity in untouched provinces

Areas that most closely stand a shot at “normal life” are those that have yet to report a single COVID-19 case.

“Admittedly, there are areas in the country that the virus was not able to reach due to the timely intervention of imposing community quarantine in Luzon,” read the report.

“These provinces may resume economic activity provided that they will continue to restrict the flow of people in and out of its jurisdiction and [the mentioned conditions] are met. It only takes one infective person to start an outbreak.”

4. At least 12 provinces candidates for modified ECQ

Using pandemic indicators like active cases, new cases, deaths, and reproduction number R (proportional to the rate of transmission), some provinces would be candidates for a modified quarantine.

These are:

• Abra in the Cordillera Administrative Region
• Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur in Region I (Ilocos Region)
• Cagayan, Isabela and Nueva Vizcaya in Region II (Cagayan Valley)
• Region IV-B (Mimaropa) provinces Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Palawan and Romblon
• Camarines Sur in Region V (Bicol Region)
• Provinces that have not recorded a single case of COVID-19

RELATED: UP experts recommend modified community quarantine after Luzon-wide lockdown ends

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