Fitch unit: Philippines-US relations unlikely to collapse; sweeter ties seen post-Duterte
MANILA, Philippines — President Rodrigo Duterte let the cold air in when he decided to scrap the Philippines’ two-decade-old military agreement with the United States, but a complete breakdown of the two nations’ ties is unlikely, a Fitch unit said Wednesday.
The Palace last Tuesday said the Philippines is formally terminating the Visiting Forces Agreement, a decision that US Defense Secretary Mark Esper called “unfortunate” and “a move in the wrong direction” at a time Washington is mustering international pressure on China.
But US President Donald Trump said he didn’t mind Duterte’s move, arguing that Washington would “save a lot of money.”
In a political analysis sent to reporters, Fitch Solutions said the abrogation of the VFA doesn’t spell the end of military relations between the long-term allies, with the longstanding 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and more recent 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement still in place.
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But Fitch Solutions warned that junking the VFA could complicate US military exercises in the region.
The Fitch unit also said it expects Duterte to continue to seek stronger diplomatic ties with Washington’s strategic rivals China and Russia over the remainder of his presidential term ending 2022, as he weans the Philippines away from its traditional treaty ally.
Sweeter ties under Duterte’s successor?
The VFA, which came into effect in May 1999, gives military personnel from both countries visa and judicial privileges, among other benefits, as well the US the right to operate vessels and aircraft in the Philippines freely.
Duterte’s move to end the VFA was in response to a US decision to rescind the visa of his close ally Sen. Ronald dela Rosa, the country’s former top cop who helped drive the government’s bloody "war on drugs", which drew strong criticism from American politicians and human rights groups.
Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said this year’s planned military exercises with American troops will proceed “as scheduled” unless the US decides to stop the war games before the VFA expires in 180 days.
“Once the termination is final, we will cease to have exercises with them,” Lorenzana said.
READ: No more joint training with US after 180-day VFA transition period
But Fitch Solutions said the souring ties between Manila and Washington could sweeten once again under Duterte and Trump’s successors.
Opinion polls show majority of Filipinos trust the US more than China and Russia, and the next Philippine president may seek to win votes by playing to this sentiment, particularly over territorial issues, the Fitch unit added.
“Moreover, if Chinese and Russian investment fails to materialize to the extent needed to fulfil the Philippines infrastructure funding needs, the incentive for closer ties may fade,” they said.
“[W]hile Duterte has favored closer ties with Beijing, we believe that his successor and voters favor a more wary approach to relations.”
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