Analyst sees victory for Democrats in US midterm polls

LOS ANGELES – Unless the tide turns during the last few days before the Nov. 7 (Manila time) midterm polls here in the United States, the Democrats will win a majority of the seats at the House of Representatives against the Republicans of President Donald Trump. 

According to professor Robert Shrum, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Carmen H. and Louis Warschaw Chair in Practical Politics at the University of Southern California, recent polls show the Democrats have a “standing lead” in the congressional elections.

Citing surveys, Shrum noted 46 percent of Americans said the elections are against Trump while 28 percent believed “it is for him.” The rest said Trump does not have anything to do with their vote.

“If those numbers are correct, then Democrats will most certainly take the House… The numbers around there would all point to the Democrats taking control of the House,” he told the 24 foreign journalists participating in the US government-sponsored International Reporting Tour for the elections here and in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Up for grabs in the upcoming elections are all of the 435 seats at the House of Representatives, with the Democrats defending 24. On the other hand, 35 of the 100 seats at the Senate are at stake, with the Democrats defending 26.

Reports say midterm polls here are considered a referendum on Trump and losses may spell trouble for him. Controlling the majority of the House and the Senate means the ability to block Trump’s policies and have him investigated on various issues.

Shrum said Democrats are no longer repeating the mistake Hillary Clinton committed when she was the party’s standard bearer in the 2016 polls – that is, coming up with campaign ads against Trump.

Instead, he said the Democrats’ campaign is focused more on health care, protesting the prohibition on denying insurance for pre-existing conditions; protecting people from having insurance with limited lifetime coverage; and economic stagnation, among others. 

Aside from this, the Democrats also seem to be winning “a huge number of governorship and this will have an impact in the 2020” presidential race. 

“That will have an impact… because once you lose the governorship, your party can’t deliver what they delivered before,” Shrum added.

So what?

But such projection was brushed aside by Shawn Steel, the Republican National Committee Representative for California, as he expressed confidence that Trump will win again should he seek re-election in the 2020 presidential polls.

“We’re gonna have to accept that (defeat) in this election cycle. (But) Trump (will be) re-elected decisively in 2020. No question in my mind about that. He solidifies the base, he is working his ass off, he is more popular than any other Democrat,” he said.

He added that based on US history “for the last hundred years, all presidents … in their first two years, they lose power in Congress.”  

“That is our historical reality and it does not matter who the president is. You lose power in the first two years because Americans are kinda like ‘OK, we’ll try the sky and hate him two years later,” he said.

But Trump is destined to bounce back when he runs for re-election in 2020, Steel said.

Steel added that Democrats who will challenge Trump in the coming elections are “complete nut cases” and will not win.