Philippines may not get help from neighbors on sea row

MANILA, Philippines - Following the failure of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to issue a common statement regarding China's activities in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), foreign and Filipino experts believe that the Philippines may be unable to get the help it expects from its neighbors to resolve the dispute.

Saying economic interest of countries in the region may be the deciding factor, analysts said the Philippines' peers in the ASEAN may be unwilling to go out of their way to help the country in its territorial dispute against China.

Yosef Djakababa, director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies - Indonesia, told Philstar.com in an interview that Jakarta is seeking to balance all its interests by keeping good relations with Beijing, Washington and Manila.

“There’s too much at stake. I think the Indonesian government wants to please everyone [because this issue] is not only about international relations, but also domestic as well. I think the current [Indonesian] President would want to work with everyone – the Chinese, Americans and neighboring countries in ASEAN. Indonesia wants to have good relations with everyone,” Djakababa said.

He added that although Jakarta may be alarmed by China’s actions in the disputed waters given their history, Djakababa said he is uncertain what the level of this alarm is.

Jakarta suspended diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1967 owing to the alleged involvement of China in a coup attempt that led to the killing of six top military officers of Indonesia in 1965. The coup was allegedly carried out by members of the Indonesian Communist Party and was seen by the Indonesian military as an attempt by Beijing to turn Indonesia into a communist state. Ties only improved beginning in the 1980s and were fully restored in 1990.

Djakababa said China is presently one of Indonesia’s largest trading partners.

According to an article in The Jakarta Post, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyuno visited China in March to improve the economic relationship between the two countries. The Jakarta Globe, meanwhile, reported that Indonesia's trade volume with China rose from $34 billion in 2009 to $42 billion in 2010.

In a separate interview with Philstar.com, political analyst Ramon Casiple said ASEAN members are unlikely to risk their good relations with China by supporting the Philippine position on the South China Sea row.

“I don’t think anybody will come out of their way to help us. I don’t think they are in a position to do it,” he said, adding that growing trade with China, which surpassed Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, is a factor for a number of countries in the region.

Casiple cited countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar as among the closest to China.

However, Casiple said he thinks all the parties in the dispute as well as the members of ASEAN would prefer a de-escalation of tension among claimants.

“Even China wants peace because it would be the biggest loser if a conflict breaks out. Some 80 percent of its trade go through that area,” he added.

He also said that although the US is an ally of the Philippines, its aid will depend on its interests in the region and in the area.

For the first time in its 45 years of existence, the ASEAN was unable to issue a joint communiqué as its members failed to reach a consensus on acceptable language to refer to the territorial rows in the South China Sea.

Both the Philippines and Vietnam had pressed for the issuance of the communiqué that should have included a reference about China’s alleged illegal entry into their respective territories. The communiqué should have been issued by the chair country, this time Cambodia, of the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting.

Meanwhile, the Department of Foreign Affairs said it is unlikely that it will file another diplomatic protest over the entry of a Chinese naval frigate close to Palawan.

The tension between Manila and Beijing over Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal) began in April when Philippine Navy personnel boarded eight Chinese fishing vessels who were allegedly caught poaching giant clams, baby sharks and other species in the area. However, the arrest of Chinese fishermen was blocked by Chinese government vessels.

Citing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas, the Philippines is claiming the territory, saying the area is within its 200-mile exclusive economic zone. Beijing, on the other hand, claims the territory, citing historical basis.