'Stronger cyclones seen in July'

MANILA, Philippines – The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) warned yesterday of stronger tropical cyclones and “above normal” rains in July and August as the southwest monsoon season peaks.

“The July-August months are likely characterized by heavy rains and strong winds and thunderstorms associated with the southwest monsoon,” Pagasa senior weather specialist Daisy Ortega told a press briefing.

Ortega said seven to 10 tropical cyclones are expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility between July and September, adding that the usual movement of the cyclones during this period is northeast.

Ortega also warned of the possible development of an El Niño phenomenon next month.

“All statistical models predict ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009 while most of the dynamical models predict the onset of El Niño during July-August-September season,” Ortega said.

However, Ortega said above normal rains would prevail during the early stages of El Niño.

El Niño is the abnormal warming in the equatorial Pacific and is usually characterized by below normal rainfall.