Goodbye, GI, lower US investments?

MANILA, Philippines – What can the Philippines expect in the first year of the Obama administration?

A drop of about 30 percent in US investments, and a rethinking of US military presence in the Philippines.

John Forbes, senior adviser of the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines Inc., raised the warning about US investments in the Philippines and Asia yesterday at the “Election Watch” organized by the US Embassy at the SM Mall of Asia.

“You find a global recession. The International Finance Institute projects a 30 percent reduction in foreign investments in 2009. That I think will happen here,” Forbes told reporters. “I think you’ll have a reduction in all investments in Asia and the Philippines will be included.”

He was apparently referring to the Institute of International Finance Inc., a global association of financial institutions created in 1983 in response to the international debt crisis.

“What I worry about actually are the emerging economies because these economies have been responsible for three quarters of the global growth in the last two years,” Forbes said.

But he expressed optimism that the US move to put extra money to get credit moving again and the availability of funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would help get things moving again.

Forbes noted that the new US leadership under president-elect Barack Obama faces the challenge of bringing the US “back around.”

“The US campaign has been extremely exciting as the longest, most expensive and most intriguing in US history and in my lifetime. Both candidates are very interesting people to have some connection with Asia but different experiences,” Forbes said.

Obama lived in Jakarta for 30 years ago while Sen. John McCain was a decorated naval aviator and prisoner-of-war for five years during the Vietnam War.

“Both have interests in Asia but this election is about the US economy and about change,” he said.

He admitted that the US is to blame for the global financial crisis because of its “excessive spending habits on housing and other consumer goods” and of its “unregulated financial transaction.”

“We are responsible for this global financial crisis. But I’m confident the new US leadership will over the next six to nine months bring the US back around,” Forbes said.

Filipinos showed strong support for Obama over Republican candidate McCain in a mock presidential election organized by the US Embassy at Mall of Asia.

Obama beat McCain by a total of 490 votes against 139 votes in the mock election.

US Ambassador Kristie Kenney and US Deputy Chief of Mission Paul Jones participated in the Manila and Cebu programs, respectively.

The Election Watch, held simultaneously at Mall of Asia and at SM Cebu, featured continuous updates on election results from live cable TV feeds, trivia contests, and information sources from the Internet. Voting machines that use ballots similar to those actually used in the US were utilized.

Kenney said she believes the new US leadership under Obama will seriously study the presence of US troops in the Philippines.

“Whoever wins will certainly look at our issues but I think what we do here is very bipartisan,” she said.

“The US Senate is very familiar with that work and the candidates were senators so they know the Philippines,” she said.

“They’ll continue to be involved in important work we do out here,” Kenney said. “I feel very confident that our relation will continue to be very good. Both have a very international outlook and are good senators.”

Maj. Gen. Benjamin Dolorfino, who heads the 8,000-strong Philippine Marines at the front line of counterterrorism efforts in Mindanao, said on Tuesday that the next US president should keep American counterterrorism troops in the country.

Better business relations

The Makati Business Club, for its part, believes there will be no drastic change in US trade dealings with the Philippines with the election of Obama.

“The general policy and attitude to the Philippines will not change. We have a long historical relationship,” MBC executive director Alberto Lim told The STAR.

He said Democrats, unlike Republicans, are traditionally less open to free trade especially in the midst of a recession and that one of the major industries that might be affected is the Business Process Outsourcing.

He said Makati businessmen have been trying to diversify trade relations so as not to be too dependent on the US. “Sometimes adversity can be good for the country. It forces you to become more efficient,” he said.

Inspiration

Senators said the victory of Obama as well as the conduct of elections should serve as an inspiration to the Filipinos.

“It took that much time and lots of struggle for a black man to ascend to the summit of political power in that citadel of democracy which is the USA. And I think that it’s the pride of humanity that such an event happened because now it proves that in the US, the melting pot of all races, anyone with ability and courage and dedication can aspire to reach the top,” Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile said.

“He grew up and was raised in Jakarta and therefore aware of the ASEAN tradition. I think he will feel empathy and sympathy for Asia. But over and above that, he would be good for the world because his world vision is more encompassing than Sen. (John) McCain,” Sen. Edgardo Angara said. 

“This US election should serve as a model to us Filipinos on how to conduct elections. It showed us how technology can ensure an honest, clean, orderly and untainted electoral exercise, whose results are known almost instantaneously after the last polling precinct had closed,” Sen. Loren Legarda said.

“Barack Obama’s victory superbly caps the lesson of the US election for people all over the world: that sooner or later governments are called upon to account for their acts and when governments fall short, the people will clamor and work for change,” Sen. Francis Pangilinan said.

Former Speaker Jose de Venecia, who is in San Francisco, California, congratulated the president-elect, saying his leadership of a “pluralistic, multiracial society can be an inspiring example for the rest of the world.”

“He has shown the ability to lead a pluralistic, multiracial society which can be an inspiring example for the rest of the world,” he said in a statement. – With Aurea Calica, Michael Punongbayan and Delon Porcalla