A calamitous year for RP

Natural and man-made calamities exacted a grievous toll on the country this year, with incessant rains bringing huge boulders and tons of mud crashing into Guinsaugon in Southern Leyte on Feb. 17.

The massive mudslide buried an entire village, killing over a thousand people.

Disaster struck again as the year was coming to an end when three super typhoons roared one after the other into the country in September, October and November, triggering landslides. Four active volcanoes also became restive.

As typhoon "Reming" blew into Bicol, rains caused volcanic debris from Mount Mayon to cascade down, burying villages in Guinobatan, Albay and leaving over a thousand dead.

In 2006, the country also suffered its worst oil spill off Guimaras island in Western Visayas.

It took the burying of entire communities, including a building packed with school children, to awaken the government and compel it to rush the geological hazard (geo-hazard) mapping of the whole country.

A day after assuming the post of environment secretary on Feb. 16, retired Armed Forces chief Angelo Reyes had the completion of a nationwide geo-hazard map as among his priority programs.

As in his former post as military commander, secretary of defense, and of the interior, Reyes almost immediately ordered the mobilization of the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) personnel and deployment of geologists for the conduct of a Rapid Geo-hazard Assessment (RGA).

The MGB put the province of Leyte as its topmost priority in the conduct of the RGA, followed by several other provinces found in the so-called Eastern Seaboard.

The Eastern Seaboard covers seven regions– Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Davao, and Caraga.

These regions were known to cut through the Philippine Fault and most major typhoons cross them when entering the country.

But budget constraints posed a major challenge to the completion of the geo-hazard maps that would identify, assess, and characterize the various areas that are vulnerable to disaster.

The MGB said it needed P90 million to facilitate the immediate completion of the geo-hazard mapping project, but it only had P9 million earmarked for it.

The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) had approved a P63.5-million Special Appropriation Release Order (SARO) as supplemental budget for the project, which would cover maps for 330 priority municipalities across the country.

But as of Feb. 20, the DBM has yet to release the fund, which "slowed down" the geo-hazard mapping project.

At the time, the MGB said it had only accomplished 115 geo-hazard maps in 2004, and 108 geo-hazard maps in 2005 in the municipal level with a ratio of 1:250,000 scale of flood and landslide susceptibility map at nationwide level.

But the MGB was tasked to "zoom in" the maps to become 1:50,000-scale for it to become more specific and exact.

It was supposed to draw maps on such scale for 840 priority towns in the country.

Meanwhile, the MGB has so far issued the list of priority geo-hazard areas in the country. The list was released around middle of 2005.

The MGB identified Benguet, Mountain Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga/Apayao, Southern Leyte, Abra, Marinduque, Cebu, Catanduanes, and Ifugao, as the 10 provinces prone to landslides.

These provinces were said to have met three or four criteria of an area considered prone to landslides such as having at least 18-degree slopes, several fault lines, tributaries like rivers, and dense population.

On the other hand, the government released P30 million to the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) to update its topographic mapping of priority areas in support of the MGB’s geo-hazard mapping program.

The MGB is using NAMRIA’s map as base for the drawing of its geologic map, which will aid resource assessment and land management use, and geo-hazard map, which is aimed to reduce negative impacts of natural or geological hazards on local populace.

Apart from assessing whether an area is susceptible to disaster or not and the mapping out of portions as "safe" and "not safe," the DENR field personnel likewise conducted information and education campaign and the establishment of early warning systems in areas where geo-hazard is prominent.

As this developed, foreign assistance particularly from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) poured in to boost government efforts to complete the geo-hazard mapping for the country.

The JICA donated P4-million worth of geo-hazard mapping equipment to the MGB, including a field vehicle, 15 laptop computers, 20 Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments, 20 digital cameras, printers, and one unit of map plotter.

The JICA also gave the MGB reproduced aerial photographs of the Leyte provinces and 12,000 copies of warning posters on landslide awareness with Tagalog and Cebuano translations, which will be distributed to different barangays.

In April, the MGB’s RGA in Leyte recommended the "complete relocation" of residents in 11 barangays in four different towns of the province for being "high risk" to landslide and floods.

Based on the report of the RGA team, these areas registered indications and incidences of surface and ground movement or shaking.

These barangays were Hinabian, Magtas, Ayahag, Nueva Esperanza, Sug-angon and portions of Guinsaugon in Saint Bernard town; barangays Catig and Malanza in Liloan town; barangay Pamig-sian in Bontoc town; and barangays Sto. Niño and Sitio Kumagai-Poblacion in Macrohon town.

Geologists also recommended a change of land use for Guinsaugon because the barangay "is no longer safe for human settlement."

The entire area could be converted strictly for agricultural use, geologists added.

On Feb. 17, Barangay Guinsaugon in St. Bernard town was buried by landslide, killing hundreds of residents.

A total of 68 barangays in nine towns of Southern Leyte were surveyed in the DENR’s RGA as areas that have geo-hazard conditions that make them landslide-prone and flood-prone areas.

The RGA team was also able to assess 50 other barangays classified as "susceptible to varying degrees of impact from various geo-hazards" but are identified as "non-critical during the dry months" based on surface manifestation of hazards like cracks, elevation and comparative evaluation of old and new maps.

However, different environment groups accused the government of ignoring the threat of natural disasters, which has been blamed on destructive logging and climate change.

The Greenpeace Southeast Asia said that the scale and frequency of similar tragedies in the past should have long since prompted the government to take action to address the perennial problems of floods and landslides at the source.

Environmentalists believed that the tragedy in Southern Leyte was a "geographical accident waiting to happen."

As early as 1998, the DENR said it has warned local governments and residents of Southern Leyte against building homes in certain areas because of the presence of the Philippine Earthquake Fault and the possibility of the recurrence of flash floods.

Geologically, volcanic rocks characterized by intense fracturing and weathering lies beneath the area, making it unstable and susceptible to mass movement, the agency added.

The Saint Bernard incident was said to have been triggered by excessive rainfall that hit Southern Leyte for two weeks, which loosened the earth and led to soil erosion and eventual landslides in the area.

The DENR said Southern Leyte contains many coconut trees, which have shallow roots that can be simply dislodged after heavy downpour and cause instability to the soil.

Logging activities in Southern Leyte have ceased in the last two years, the agency added.

Typhoons and volcanoes

Come September, typhoon "Milenyo" triggered landslides and flashfloods in many provinces. The hardest hit was Bicol.

Called the worst and strongest typhoon to hit Metro Manila, Milenyo almost put the nation’s capital at a standstill, and caused a Luzon-wide blackout while leaving many people dead, thousands homeless, and natural resources and public and private properties toppled.

The typhoon also resulted in massive communication lines and water supply outage, and class suspension in many parts of Luzon.

Like "a nightmare" was how the typhoon was described because its intensity was considered "more than the normal."

Residents in Bicol still reel from the impacts of the typhoon until now, spending Christmas in evacuation centers with virtually nothing.

Nathaniel Cruz of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said this was the first time that the country was hit by three super typhoons in a year based on Pagasa’s data since 1948.

Super typhoons "Paeng," "Queenie" and "Reming" struck the country, leaving thousands of people dead, damaging billions of pesos worth of properties, cutting power and communication lines in different parts of the country.

Typhoon "Milenyo," though not classified as super typhoon by government weather forecasters, slammed Metro Manila on Sept. 28, toppling billboards and trees, while killing one person.

While Metro Manila was spared by Reming, which hit the country last week of November, Reming left a trail of destruction that killed more than a thousand people and forced the evacuation of thousands of residents in the Bicol region because of mudslides triggered by strong rains.

The typhoon also toppled power lines and stopped sea travel in its path.

Reming was described by Pagasa as the "deadliest" typhoon to hit the country this year.

Who will forget Seniang, which became one of the reasons for the postponement of the ASEAN and East Asian summits in Cebu City originally scheduled on Dec. 11 to 14.

Seniang hit the country days after Reming battered the Bicol region.

Damage to infrastructure by typhoons: Milenyo – P2.636 billion; Paeng – P460 million; Reming – P1.797 billion; and Seniang – P310.3 billion; a total of P5.2 billion, according to the DBM.

Of this amount Milenyo and Reming contributed 85 percent or roughly P4.4 billion, the DBM added.

Damage to agriculture: Milenyo – P3.973 billion; Paeng – P740.3 million; Reming – P3.887 billion; and Seniang – P223.5 billion, a total P8.8 billion.

Affected families reached 1.78 million or 8.79 million persons; while displaced families reached 665,494 families or 3,335,812 persons.

There were 1,009 recorded casualties; 3,129 injured; and 841 missing.

The total damage to infrastructure is P14.05 billion; all figures are estimates of the DBM as of Dec. 14.

A total of 20 typhoons have so far entered the Philippines this year. But the strongest include Henry, Inday, Milenyo and the three super typhoons Paeng, Queenie and Reming.

Typhoon "Tomas" was the latest tropical storm to enter the country in 2006.

An average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones hit the country every year.  In 1993, the Philippines was battered by 33 typhoons and 12 in 1997.

While there was a showdown of typhoons, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said four active volcanoes also displayed unrest earlier in the year - Mount Bulusan in Sorsogon, Taal volcano in Batangas, Mount Kanlaon in Negros and Mount Mayon in Albay.

Mt. Bulusan started emitting ashes, accompanied by tremors in March. This prompted Phivolcs to elevate its alert level from zero to one.

Two months later, Taal began spewing ash forcing authorities to tighten the cordon on this tourist spot.

Last June 14, Mount Kanlaon started showing activities and Mount Mayon followed a month later.

The lava flow emitted by Mayon had exceeded the six-kilometer danger zone in barangays Mabinit and Bunga in Legaspi City in Aug. 2, prompting Phivolcs to extend the radius to eight kilometers.

But this time, the volcano had already spewed 17 million cubic meters of lava into the Bonga gully, one of Mayon’s biggest canals created during a series of eruptions in the past.

The gully is situated in the southeast sector of Mayon, facing Legaspi City, and Daraga and Sto. Domingo towns.

The 5,115-foot Mount Bulusan emitted ash and mud anew last Dec. 20.

Phivolcs director Renato Solidum said the explosion indicates that "there is still abnormality," adding scientists are never discounting the possibility of a major explosion.

Last Dec. 14 Phivolcs said that Taal volcano has increased significant activities.

The main crater lake water is becoming more acidic since Sept. 12, Solidum said.

On Oct. 25, volcanologists lowered alert level 2 over Mayon volcano to alert level one, which means that there is no danger of imminent hazardous eruption.

Phivolcs lifted alert level over Kanlaon volcano last Nov. 2, saying ash ejections ceased and the usual key parameters indicating activity showed a general trend towards calmness.

On Aug. 11, the ill-fated M/T Solar I, carrying more than two million liters of bunker fuel, sank off Guimaras island, causing the worst-ever oil spill in the country, while polluting fishing grounds, mangroves, corals and marine reserves.

Reports said that the oil spill has affected 5,437 families or 26,740 persons. It has also devastated Guimaras’ rich marine life and affected tourist resorts.

Early this year, Pagasa also announced that the country was experiencing a weak El Niño.

Pagasa officer-in-charge Prisco Nilo said below normal rainfall was observed over parts of northern and western Luzon, and most of northern Panay including Iloilo, southern Cebu, the western parts of Bohol and the Zamboanga provinces in August and September.

Cruz said the weak El Niño, aside from global warming, was one of the reasons why the country was hit by strong typhoons this year.

Cruz is optimistic that by 2010, the country would have 10 Doppler radars to be installed in all areas that will significantly improve the country’s weather forecasting.

The Doppler radars are capable of generating short-term but highly accurate weather forecasts. Cruz said this would be the first time that the country would have the Doppler radar.

He also said that Pagasa is finalizing a project with three giant cell phone companies — Globe, Smart and Sun cellular. Starting next year, Filipinos can receive weather information by texting ULAN to numbers that would be provided by these companies.

Cruz earlier said that Pagasa is also planning to acquire the country’s first ever satellite forecasting by 2010, in order to enhance the agency’s capability of forecasting weather disturbances that might cause massive devastation in the country and endanger the lives of the Filipino people.

For his part, Solidum said the agency would continue training its staff, while upgrading equipment.

Phivolcs would also lead the public in earthquake and tsunami drills nationwide so to create awareness on disaster-preparedness and management.

Science Secretary Estrella Alabastro praised Pagasa and the Phivolcs for being in the frontline of the DOST this year, by giving accurate information and timely warnings to the general public.

Early this month, typhoon Seniang hit the Eastern Visayas and similarly forced people to the evacuation centers and caused widespread blackout.

Environmentalists attribute such extreme weather disturbances to climate change.

Greenpeace said the government should take seriously the issues on destructive logging and climate change.

To date, the MGB reported that it has already completed assessment and mapping of 54.8 percent or 658 out of the 1,200 target municipalities.

As of November, the MGB has completed the assessment and mapping on 320 (97 percent) of the 330 target municipalities for this year, using the supplemental budget from the DBM while it also completed assessment and mapping on 98 (93 percent) of the 105 target municipalities for this year, using its regular budget for the project.

The completed geo-hazard maps were at 1:50,000-scale.

The MGB hopes to fast-track the geo-hazard mapping project through, among others, the acquisition of satellite images and air photographs for remote sensing studies.

The bureau likewise aims to proceed with the geo-hazard mapping at the 1:10,000-scale of critical barangays nationwide.

It targets to finish all 1,200 priority municipalities by next year, and draw assessment and geo-hazard maps for the 480 provinces that are considered of "lesser priority" by 2008.

But the people at the MGB could only pray that the deadlock between the Senate and House of Representatives over the proposed 2007 national budget be resolved.

The budget for the geo-hazard mapping project for 2007 is P69 million and the MGB needs an additional P40 million to fast-track the mapping with the target going from 330 municipalities to at least 500 municipalities for next year.

If Congress fails to pass the 2007 General Appropriations Act and relapse to using a re-enacted budget for next year, the completion of the geo-hazard maps might just be put to slow gear again even when there is no stopping extreme weather disturbance to continue to hit the country. – Katherine Adraneda, Helen Flores, Sheila Crisostomo