The conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, which has considerable influence on US presidents, issued its latest analysis on Mrs. Arroyo’s leadership, the current political crisis and the unresolved killings of journalists here.
Dana Robert Dillon, a senior policy analyst in the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation who writes regularly about the Philippines, commented in the analysis that Mrs. Arroyo was "in trouble."
The foundation urged Bush not to grant meetings with Mrs. Arroyo until she gets serious about journalist killings and stops intimidating the media.
"We have a carrot to offer," Dillon said. "(Mrs.) Arroyo desperately wants a visit with President Bush to shore up her shaky political situation at home.
"We should tell her to get serious about apprehending those who kill journalists and about preventing intimidation of the press," he added. "If she does, we can discuss a presidential visit. But not before."
The analysis concluded that Washington continues to prop up the Arroyo administration, even bestowing more aid to Manila this year than in 2005.
"But, as a close observer of foreign policy on Capitol Hill said recently, there is a ‘growing awareness in Congress about the deterioration of the rule of law in the Philippines,’" Dillon said. "That awareness extends to the White House, where debate continues over whether President Bush should meet with President Arroyo."
He said Mrs. Arroyo wants to convince policy-makers that her illegal and unconstitutional suppression of journalists through Proclamation 1017 actually serves to preserve the Philippines’ 1987 Constitution and the rule of law.
"Congress and President Bush must show her that this ‘logic’ doesn’t fly here, and that this goes for all allies in the global war on terror," he said. "Instead, Congress and President Bush should review the security assistance provided to the Philippines and ensure that accountability procedures are followed and American-provided equipment and aid is used properly."
Dillon said the political situation in the country was in crisis and noted Mrs. Arroyo’s popularity ratings had dropped into the low teens.
He noted the President survived an alleged coup attempt last February but added that "people power" demonstrations break out regularly in Manila.
"She recently survived an alleged coup attempt," he said. "(Mrs.) Arroyo appears to have given up on convincing her constituents of her competence. Instead, she has resorted to the methods many dictators use to silence criticism."
The analysis cited a report of the Reporters Sans Frontieres or Reporters Without Borders (RSF) that said 52 reporters covering the Philippines had been murdered since 1986 and 42 of the cases remained unsolved.
According to the Committee for the Protection of Journalists (CPJ), 22 journalists were murdered since 2000, making the Philippines the most murderous country in the world for journalists during that period.
He also cited an editorial in the April 5 edition of The New York Times regarding the alleged intimidation of the press by security forces in the Philippines.
According to The New York Times piece, Philippine troops surrounded a TV station for more than a week recently to discourage negative reporting.
While no one said the President ordered or knew about any of the journalist killings, Dillon said the slow government action in making arrests and bringing journalist-killers to justice was unacceptable for a country that receives so much American aid.
On April 6, Philippine Permanent Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Lauro Baja Jr. called on The New York Times to take a second look at the Philippines after its editorial criticized the President’s policies, which the newspaper said were undermining the country’s hard-won democracy.