Expert: Namfrel did not keep accurate count of 2004 vote

An information technology expert from the University of the Philippines accused the National Citizens Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) yesterday of selective tabulation during the May 2004 elections.

Roberto Versola said Namfrel did this to allegedly cover up discrepancies between their tally and the official congressional tally, which showed that President Arroyo won by over one million votes against her rival, the late actor Fernando Poe Jr.

Versola, author of a research article titled "The True Result of the 2004 election based on Namfrel Tally" published in "Karinlan," a Philippine Journal of Third World Studies, told reporters at the weekly Kapihan sa Sulo at the Sulo Hotel in Quezon City that the Namfrel tallies showed that Mrs. Arroyo did not win by around 1.1 million votes over Poe as was manifested in the congressional tally.

However, Versola concluded that, if the completed Namfrel tally were made, Mrs. Arroyo might still have won the election with at least 156,000 votes over Poe.

Last year’s presidential race was a very close contest, with the most probable result being that Mrs. Arroyo would win by 156,000 votes over Poe, he added.

In his comparison between the tabulations of Congress and Namfrel, Versola said big discrepancies were noted in the provinces of Basilan, Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi Tawi amd Lanao del Norte in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), with a lead reversal in the first four provinces.

In Basilan, he said, the Namfrel tally showed that Poe got 73 percent of the votes and 20 percent went to Mrs. Arroyo, but the official congressional canvass indicated that Mrs. Arroyo won 58 percent of the votes to Poe’s 36 percent — a number equivalent to 346 "shaved and padded" votes per thousand.

In Sultan Kudarat, the Namfrel tally showed that Poe won by 49 percent over Mrs. Arroyo’s 20 percent, while the Namfrel tally in Lanao del Sur showed that Poe gained 47 of the votes and Mrs. Arroyo got 36 percent.

In Sulu, Poe won 61 percent of the votes over Mrs. Arroyo’s 32 percent.

However, the congressional canvass showed the reverse, with Mrs. Arroyo winning 53 percent over Poe’s 17 percent, with 68 percent in Lanao del Sur over Poe’s 22 and bagging 61 percent of votes in Sulu versus Poe’s 53 percent.

Versola said the discrepancies between the Namfrel and Congress tally extended to the voter turnout in the ARMM, Ilocos Region and Central Visayas.

The ARMM tally jumped from the lowest 94.2 presidential votes per precinct to the highest 153.4 votes per precinct. Ilocos Region votes jumped from 147.2 votes to 167.7 votes per precinct, making it the top instead of sixth-ranking region in terms of presidential votes per precinct, Versola said.

In Central Visayas, voter turnout changed from 137.3 to 151 votes per precinct. A significant increase in the turnout of voters was also noted in the Central Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon.

Versola said his analysis of discrepancies assumed that the Namfrel tally was closer to the truth than the congressional count, but he found that the election watchdog may have manipulated its tally to minimize the voting turnout in ARMM, reduce Mrs. Arroyo’s margin nationwide and reverse her win in the two Mindanao regions.

Versola said he tried several times to call Namfrel’s attention to his findings and sit down with their technical group to reconcile the inconsistency, adding that his efforts to get Namfrel to look at his data were in vain.

He accused Namfrel officials of hiding the truth from the public by not including in their system design a provincial to regional breakdown of precincts counted, despite his repeated requests.

"If Namfrel releases this breakdown, we might be able to narrow down the probable range even further and get closer to the truth," Versola said.