Thaksin emerging as SEA’s dominant statesman

BANGKOK (AFP) — Thailand’s billionaire premier Thaksin Shinawatra is using the APEC summit to cement his emerging role as Southeast Asia’s dominant statesman, with Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad about to leave the world stage.

But analysts say that despite his moment in the international spotlight, he has snatched the crown as much by default as through savvy political maneuvering.

US President George W. Bush, Hu Jintao of China, Japan’s premier Junichiro Koizumi and Russia’s Vladimir Putin are among 21 world leaders congregating here today for a summit under Thaksin’s stewardship.

Guiding them through the two-day meeting’s primary themes of cooperating against terrorism and resuscitating stalled multilateral trade talks will be the biggest challenge of Thaksin’s burgeoning political career.

"If Thaksin can give a strong message on the WTO, he will definitely get the credit and his international stature will be substantially boosted," the Nation newspaper said in an opinion piece.

In the run-up to APEC, the telecommunications tycoon-turned-politician has captured top Southeast Asian terror suspect Hambali, hosted a summit on battling the SARS crisis and cracked down on the rampant drugs trade.

He has announced expected 2003 GDP growth for Thailand topping six percent, spearheaded a drive to set up the first Asian Bond fund and declared his country recovered from the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.

Thailand has urged APEC’s developing nations to speed up their commitment to free trade by five years to 2015, and Thaksin has called on fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to adopt a common market by 2012.

"It is clear that the baton of ASEAN leadership is being passed to him," the Nation said.

Thaksin is also buoyed by his ties with Bush, who has praised his Thai partner for his support in the war on terror and lauded the country’s deployment of troops to Iraq.

"I do see him (Thaksin) as a very strong leader and a very capable leader," Bush said in a television interview before embarking on his trip to Asia.

"He’s got a good grasp of the issues," Bush said. "He understands how economies work. He is not afraid to make tough decisions. He stands his ground in the face of criticism. And so I think he is a very interesting, dynamic leader."

Regional elder statesman Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia is about to retire on Oct. 31 and there appears to be no one standing between Thaksin and the leadership mantle in a region peppered with only a handful of full-bodied democracies.

"If Thaksin is going to be the region’s leader it will be by default," Bruce Gale, a political risk consultant at Hill and Associates in Singapore, told AFP.

"If you look at all those other (Southeast Asian) governments, they are either in transition or stagnation."

The 10-member ASEAN includes communist Vietnam and its reclusive neighbor Laos, military-ruled Myanmar, impoverished Cambodia, and a Brunei sultanate.

Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong is widely seen as merely implementing the vision of his much-heralded predecessor Lee Kuan Yew, the architect of Singapore’s economic revolution.

Philippines President Gloria Arroyo is too embroiled in a struggle for her own political survival to assert her imprint on the region, Gale said.

Indonesia, the region’s largest country, may be looking to reassert the weight it carried under Soharto, the country’s longtime strongman who dominated the regional political scene in the 1960s and 70s, a senior Malaysian diplomat said.

"But comparatively President Megawati (Sukarnoputri) cannot match Thaksin," he said, stressing that Indonesia must get a better handle on terrorism and clean up other domestic woes before it can hope to lead the region.

Not all has gone smoothly for Thaksin. He has been roundly criticized for his war on drugs, which left over 2,000 people dead and tens of thousands arrested this year.

His habit of installing relatives in key military and government posts has raised eyebrows, and a media crackdown as well as his declaration that protesters were persona non grata at APEC brought howls of protest that he was muzzling free speech.

But the premier and his so-called Thaksinomics, including his pledge to eradicate poverty by 2009, continue to intrigue the region. And the former policeman who formed his Thai Rak Thai party only two years before steering it to victory in January 2001 elections with an unprecedented parliamentary majority appears to be increasingly assured in his role.

"I have to be on the offensive, not defensive," he said in a speech to APEC delegates Saturday which explained his decision to ram through bilateral free trade agreements while WTO multilateral negotiations founder.

"If we wait here and do nothing, we will probably (go) bust."