RP is 14th most populous country

STAR Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — The Philippines ranks as the 14th largest country in the world today in terms of population with 77 million people and by the year 2025 it will move up one rank higher to 13th place with an estimated 108 million people, according to the latest demographic estimates of the Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB).

The estimates were issued at a two-day meeting which ended Tuesday wherein top scientists discussed the role of research in improving population and health conditions in the world’s poorest countries.

While the statistics for the Philippines looked disturbing, particularly to economists who see population expansion as a major roadblock to economic growth, they were not as alarming as earlier forecasts that the country’s population would double in 29 years. Nevertheless, even the government acknowledges the current annual population growth rate of 2.2 percent to be on the high side.

On top of the PRB list is China, with a population of 1.27 billion, followed by India with 1.033 billion and the US with 285 million.

On fourth place is Indonesia with a population of 206 million; followed by Brazil, 172 million; Pakistan, 145 million; Russia, 144 million; Bangladesh, 134 million; Japan and Nigeria, both with 127 million; Mexico, 100 million; Germany, 82 million; Vietnam, 79 million; and Egypt, 70 million.

In a significant departure from past practice, the PRB this year dropped the "doubling time" of a population from its data sheet saying this had become irrelevant because some countries, particularly those in Europe, were not expected to double their population numbers anytime in the foreseeable future, if ever.

According to current population projections only three of the more developed countries – the United States, Russia and Japan – are expected to remain among the world’s most populous by 2025 and Germany will no longer be in the top 15.

The doubling time of a population – calculated by dividing a country’s growth rate into 69.3 – is simply the number of years it would take for a population to double in size if the present rate of growth remained unchanged.

But most projections for developing countries make the assumption that fertility will decline as a natural feature of the demographic transition from high birth and death rates to low ones, so that the rate of growth will, in fact, not remain constant.

The PRB is a non-profit, non-advocacy organization founded in 1929 which monitors population trends and provides this information to policymakers, educators and the media to increase awareness and understanding of population issues.

According to the PRB figures, by mid-2001 the Philippines had an estimated 77.2 million population projected to increase to 107.8 million by 2025 and to 129.2 million by the year 2050.

By way of comparison, during the same period the world population is expected to increase from 6.13 billion currently to 7.8 billion in 2025 and 9.0 billion in 2050.

Philippine politicians have been reluctant to aggressively promote birth control measures because of the vast influence of the Roman Catholic church which disallows the use of artificial contraceptives.