Pulse Asia poll gives GMA 48%

President Arroyo’s net approval rating rose by a hefty 44 points, to 48 percent from 4 percent in December, according to the latest survey by PulseAsia Inc.

The survey also showed eight candidates of Mrs. Arroyo’s People Power Coalition (PPC) would win Senate seats in the next Congress while the opposition would win five seats.

According to the survey, 63 percent of respondents approved of Mrs. Arroyo’s leadership while 15 percent disapproved. Twenty-one percent were undecided.

Consistent with other surveys, the President appeared to be most popular in Luzon (55 percent) and the Visayas (51 percent) while she garnered a lower 44 percent net approval rating in Mindanao.

Also consistent with other surveys is the indication that there are more people "undecided," or still waiting and watching, than those who actually disapprove of her.

In Mindanao, for instance, 60 percent approve while 16 percent disapprove of the President’s performance for a net rating of 44 percent but 25 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

PulseAsia said the survey was conducted among 1,200 adult respondents, 88 percent of whom were registered voters, during the period Mar. 8-21 amid positive political developments, including a Supreme Court ruling affirming the legitimacy of her administration.

In describing the survey results, PulseAsia said Mrs. Arroyo had gained a "critical majority" nationwide but not in the Senate, where her looming majority can only be best described as precarious.

The survey showed that 69.6 percent of respondents would vote for popular broadcast journalist Noli de Castro, putting him on top of the Magic 13 winning circle.

Winning PPC candidates include Sen. Franklin Drilon (47.9 percent), Sen. Juan Flavier (45.9 percent), lawyer Francis Pangilinan (44.3 percent), Sen. Sergio Osmeña III (44.2 percent), Sen. Ramon Magsaysay Jr. (41.4 percent), Rep. Joker Arroyo, Rep. Ralph Recto and former Speaker Manny Villar.

The opposition would put in former Defense Secretary Orly Mercado (41.3 percent), former Executive Secretary Edgardo Angara (37 percent), former national police chief Panfilo Lacson (35.8 percent) and former Press Secretary Ricardo "Dong" Puno (34.2 percent)

While the survey conceded that PPC would lead the polls, it also showed that an 8-5 victory is not enough to form a decisive majority in the Senate, where impeachment trials rise and fall.

The Senate has 11 incumbent members, six of whom voted in favor of disgraced President Joseph Estrada during his impeachment trial.

One of the five remaining senators is Senate President Aquilino Pimentel who is presumably unhappy at not being chosen to be Vice President by Mrs. Arroyo last month.

Mrs. Arroyo can thus depend on only four supposedly reliable votes among the incumbent senators plus the eight new senators for a total of 12 of the 24-seat Senate.

In its poll of preferences for party-list representatives, Bayan Muna, led by former communist rebel Satur Ocampo, topped the list but garnered only 4.3 percent of respondents.

Other top party-list groups are Akbayan with 2.7 percent; A Peaceful Organization Leadership, Friendship, Service Management (APO SERVICE) and Adhikain at Kilusan ng Ordinaryong Tao (AKO) with 2.6 percent and Mamamayan Ayaw sa Droga (MAD) with 2.4 percent.

The survey also showed that 92 percent would likely vote in the May 14 congressional and local elections, indicating that voter turnout in the elections would be among the highest in Philippine electoral history.