Chasing history

It’s been 10 years since Barangay Ginebra won an All-Filipino championship in the PBA and the last title came at San Miguel Beer’s expense in 2006-07. The long drought could finally come to an end but Ginebra coach Tim Cone has to work one more miracle to get it done over highly-favored San Miguel in the Philippine Cup best-of-seven finals starting tomorrow at the MOA Arena.

All conference long, Cone has pulled one rabbit after another from a hat like a bottomless pit. Ginebra needed a 90-80 win over NLEX to avoid a complicated logjam in the race to the playoffs and came back from 17 down to escape a twice-to-win disadvantage against the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals. Then, Ginebra survived two consecutive do-or-die battles to oust Alaska and two more knockout duels to eliminate Star on the way to the finals.

Now, Cone faces San Miguel coach Leo Austria in a war to decide the King of Kings in the PBA’s most prestigious joust. They’ve never faced off in the finals before so it’s a brand new experience for the tacticians. They’re both highly-touted. Cone is in the record books as the PBA’s winningest coach ever with 19 titles under his belt, including last season’s Governors Cup which was his first with Ginebra after 13 with Alaska and five with the Purefoods franchise. Austria is a Leo-come-lately with three championships in the last six conferences, including the previous two Philippine Cups. If Austria bags this crown, San Miguel gets to keep the permanent trophy for capturing three consecutive Philippine Cup titles, a feat only achieved by the TNT KaTropa.

Since 1982, the PBA has staged 77 best-of-7 finals and this is the 78th. Of the 77, four were contested by San Miguel and Ginebra with the Beermen enjoying a 3-1 edge. The first was in the 1989 Reinforced Conference where coach Norman Black piloted San Miguel to a 4-1 victory over Anejo to cap a Grand Slam. The second was in the 2001 All-Filipino Cup with Jong Uichico taking San Miguel to the throne via a 4-2 win over Ginebra. The third was in the 2007 Philippine Cup where Uichico, this time coaching Ginebra, turned the tables on San Miguel, 4-2. The fourth was when Siot Tanquingcen steered San Miguel to a 4-3 thriller over Ginebra in the 2009 Fiesta Conference.

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From the last San Miguel-Ginebra finals in 2009, JayJay Helterbrand and Mark Caguioa are the only players back for another run. Olsen Racela was then with San Miguel as a player, now he’s with Ginebra as an assistant coach. In the 2009 finals, Ginebra led, 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2 but San Miguel took Games 6 and 7 to close it out with a flourish.

In a short series, San Miguel has the edge because Austria’s rotation basically relies on a nucleus of five players. JuneMar Fajardo, Alex Cabagnot, Arwind Santos, Marcio Lassiter and Chris Ross are averaging at least 32 minutes a game. With Ginebra, only three players are averaging at least 30 minutes in the conference – L. A. Tenorio, Japeth Aguilar and Scottie Thompson. Clearly, Cone spreads out the minutes to more players than Austria. In the semifinals, Sol Mercado averaged 31.9 minutes and Joe De Vance, nursing a foot injury, logged only 16.2 minutes, down from his conference norm of 27.2.

Like in the Star series, Ginebra can only beat San Miguel if it locks down defensively. Ginebra would never be able to beat the Hotshots in a shootout. In the same way, Ginebra could never repulse San Miguel by trading baskets. In Ginebra’s 12 wins this conference, opponents were held to an average of only 77.8 points. In Ginebra’s eight losses, opponents averaged 88.6. That spread is the difference between winning and losing for Ginebra. It’s no accident that Ginebra is No. 1 in points allowed at 81.9, No. 1 in field goal percentage allowed at 38.6 percent and No. 1 in assists allowed at 15.2. On the flip side, Ginebra is last in offense at 86.3 points and last in three-point percentage at 26.8 percent. Its unselfish style is reflected by ranking first in assists at 20.8.

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Curiously, Ginebra is No. 11 in turnover points and No. 11 in opponents’ turnovers at 16.5. That means Ginebra anchors its defense not in forcing turnovers with backcourt pressure but in making tough stops in the half-court. Ginebra limits good looks and allows no easy shots. It clogs the lane, packs the paint, traps the pick-and-roll and rotates quickly to cover the open man off a double team.

In contrast, San Miguel thrives in offense. In the Beermen’s 15 wins this conference, they’ve averaged 99.8 points and gone over 100 points in seven games. In their four losses, their average was down to 89. If Ginebra prefers a low-scoring contest, San Miguel likes it high-scoring. San Miguel is No. 1 in offense at 97.5, No. 1 in rebounding at 52.7 and No. 1 in blocked shots at 4.9.

Fajardo is Ginebra’s biggest headache. Aguilar isn’t a match for Fajardo on a single coverage and will need help at the low block. Maybe, Cone will put Dave Marcelo or De Vance as Fajardo’s primary defender and use Aguilar for help purposes. That way, Aguilar won’t compromise his foul situation. TNT did a good job of limiting Fajardo in Game 5 of their semis series when he was held to 13 points in a 101-94 San Miguel loss. But Ginebra has neither a Kelly Williams or a Mo Tautuaa who can body up on Fajardo. The other problem for Ginebra is if Fajardo is shackled, he has the ability to locate the open man and with shooters like Cabagnot and Lassiter available, it will be like target practice.