Waiting for the ‘Lee-thal’ Weapon

Paul Lee hasn’t played in the PBA Philippine Cup since the season started last October and it’s a tribute to coach Yeng Guiao that despite his absence, Rain Or Shine is in a strong position to finish top two in the eliminations for an outright semifinals slot.

Last Friday, the Elasto Painters took out Alaska, 111-105, in a battle of title contenders at the Smart Araneta Coliseum. The win raised Rain Or Shine’s record to 7-2. Coincidentally, Alaska’s mark dropped to 7-2. Under league rules, ties for No. 2 and No. 10 will be broken by a playoff. All other ties will be settled by the quotient system. That’s because the last two teams will be struck out of contention and the first two gain automatic tickets to the semifinals. The stakes are much higher in deciding which teams end up No. 2 and No. 10.

The Painters close out their elimination schedule against Meralco on Wednesday and NLEX on Saturday. A sweep will take Rain Or Shine to 9-2 which guarantees the Painters a playoff for No. 2.

The remarkable thing is Rain Or Shine has been able to stay on top or at least, near the top with Lee at the sidelines. Last season, Lee averaged 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 27.3 minutes in 53 of Rain Or Shine’s 55 games. He was the team’s leading local scorer with Jeff Chan the only other Filipino averaging in twin digit points at 10.2. At the moment, Lee is recovering from a slight tear in the ACL and meniscus of his knee. The prognosis was he would be out of commission for about two months but the deadline is fast approaching. Lee might suit up for the Meralco game on Wednesday to get him mentally ready for the playoffs.

The Painters lost four veterans in the offseason – Ryan Arana, Jervy Cruz, Jonathan Uyloan and T. Y. Tang. The newcomers are rookies Maverick Ahanmisi, Don Trollano and Josan Nimes, returning Ronnie Matias and big guy Jewel Ponferada who came in from Globalport. It’s not often that Guiao makes a major revamp in his roster but this was an exception. Guiao brought in three rookies with the future in mind. Trollano is 23 and Ahanmisi and Nimes, 24. Rain Or Shine has eight players who are 27 and below. That’s how Guiao likes it. In his system, Guiao puts a premium on fresh, young legs.

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No player in the lineup is more than 33 years old. Jireh Ibanes, 33, is the most senior and the only others who are at least 30 are Gabe Norwood, 30, Chris Tiu, 30, J. R. Quinahan, 31, Chan, 32 and Matias, 32. Those in their 20s are Jeric Teng, 24, Jericho Cruz, 25, Lee, 26, Raymond Almazan, 26, Ponferada, 27, Beau Belga, 29 and the three rookies.

Guiao’s philosophy of equal opportunity is reflected in the way he has started every player this conference. No player is averaging 30 minutes or more and eight are logging at least 20. Four players are averaging in double figure points – Cruz at 14.4, Chan at 13.2, Belga at 11.9, Quinahan at 10.4. Four more are averaging at least seven a game.

Because Guiao’s system allows for anyone to take shots if he’s open, Rain Or Shine leads the league in offense with 101.9 points an outing. It’s also No. 1 in field goal percentage at .454, No. 1 in assists at 22 a game and No. 1 in fastbreak points at 18.9. The Painters make teams pay for their mistakes by scoring heavily in transition.

Against Alaska, Rain Or Shine took the starch out of the Aces by dominating the offensive glass, 16-8, to earn a huge advantage in second chance points, 14-4. The Aces shot at a higher clip from the floor, 51 percent to 49, but because Rain Or Shine had more rebounds and less turnovers, the Painters had more possessions and more field goal attempts, 80-75. Rain Or Shine also had the edge in fastbreak points, 38-22 and free throws made, 25-18.

Guiao’s balanced attack was a critical factor as seven Painters finished in double figure points – Belga 17, Cruz 13, Almazan 13, Quinahan 12, Chan 12, Trollano 12, Norwood 11. Curiously, Alaska had more bench points, 67-64 but the Painters were more productive on a man-to-man basis. Against Globalport last Nov. 20, Alaska had eight players scoring in twin digits.

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While Alaska coach Alex Compton also subscribes to the philosophy of equal opportunity, his style of execution is different in that he has a regular starting five backed up by strong second and third units. Compton made just one tweak so far, replacing Tony de la Cruz with Eric Menk in the starting cast. De la Cruz started the first four games and Menk the last five. Both Guiao and Compton rely on their bench. Guiao, however, is more versatile in his attack. He has no standard second or third unit, preferring to send in his troops depending on the matchups. Compton is more predictable as his rotation consistently follows the same pattern regardless of the opponent.

Rain Or Shine’s 95-85 loss to Talk ‘N’ Text last Sunday was a wake-up call. TNT got off to a hot 17-0 start and never looked back. What threw off Guiao was the Texters’ adjustments in their starting lineup. TNT coach Jong Uichico set the tone defensively with a relatively small first five – Kelly Williams at center, Troy Rosario at four, Larry Fonacier at three, Matt Ganuelas at two and Jayson Castro at one. Mo Tautuaa came off the bench for the first time this conference and Uichico deployed Fonacier and Ganuelas as starters for the first time together. The Painters had Ponferada and Almazan on the floor and they were outrun from the onset.

TNT’s defense held Rain Or Shine to 11 points in the first period and 38 percent shooting for the game. TNT limited the league’s top offensive team to only 85 points, over 15 below the Painters average. The Texters made it tough for Rain Or Shine to get good looks by locking down man–to-man, holding the Painters to only 11 assists. They forced the Painters to go one-on-one and curtailed ball movement.

TNT showed how to beat Rain Or Shine – you don’t try to outscore the Painters because Guiao has too many weapons on hand, you limit their options to shots that you want them to take not what they want to take.

The loss to TNT was a signal that Lee’s services are needed against a team that plays tough defense. Lee isn’t just a scorer but also a facilitator and creator. Rain Or Shine could’ve used Lee against TNT. If he finally shows up to play on Wednesday, Guiao will be a lot more confident entering the playoffs.