Virtual do-or-die

The Smart Araneta Coliseum will be transformed into another theater of war in Game 4 of the PBA Philippine Cup Finals between Alaska and San Miguel Beer tonight with the Aces looking to extend their best-of-7 series lead which now stands at 2-1.

Another Alaska win will push the Beermen to the brink of capitulation. In PBA history, only one team has survived a 1-3 deficit to win in the Finals and that happened in the 1991 First Conference where coach Robert Jaworski steered Barangay Ginebra to an improbable comeback over Shell. There have been 33 Finals where teams raced to a 3-1 advantage with only Ginebra managing to storm back from the hole. That’s a lowly three percent probability of success. Two other PBA teams dug out of a 1-3 predicament to win in a best-of-7 tie and both came in the Philippine Cup semifinals – Purefoods over Alaska in 2006 and Talk ‘N’ Text over Petron in 2011-12.

In the NBA, the chances of surviving a 1-3 situation are also extremely slim. Only eight teams have accomplished the feat but none in the Finals. As of 2011, statistics showed that the probability of success was only four percent. The probability of success in the Finals was zero.

So the pressure is on San Miguel to come out with a big win tonight. A victory will tie the series at two wins apiece, turning it into a best-of-3 affair. A loss will be devastating to the Beermen’s cause. It’s a virtual do-or-die for San Miguel. Coach Leo Austria knows what’s at stake and you can expect the Beermen to go all out like they’ve never done before.

Alaska took Game 1, 88-82, in overtime, after coming back from a pair of 22-point deficits in the first half. PBA records indicate a 70 percent chance of a team winning Game 1 in a best-of-7 series to clinch. But the last time the PBA held a best-of-7 Finals, San Mig Coffee lost Game 1 to Rain Or Shine but battled back to capture the Philippine Cup crown in six. Neither trend appears to be conclusive.

In Game 2, San Miguel rebounded to trounce the Aces, 100-86. It was close until the fourth period when the Beermen unleashed the full fury of their arsenal with Chris Ross firing 10 points, JuneMar Fajardo 7, Chris Lutz 6 and Arwind Santos 5 in a decisive spurt. San Miguel and Alaska engaged in a high-scoring shootout, something that Aces coach Alex Compton later regretted. Alaska is tough to beat in a low-scoring contest while San Miguel is tough to beat in a high-scoring battle.

In Game 3, Alaska sprang back to life in the fourth period with fresh legs on the court. San Miguel was up by 21 in the third quarter but sputtered down the stretch. Alaska was relentless in opening the payoff period with a 20-1 burst, including 17-0. The only point that San Miguel scored during the surge was a technical foul shot by Lutz.

With San Miguel’s guns jammed, the Aces went for the jugular and closed it out on a 10-2 run. That quarter left San Miguel in a shambles as the Beermen scored only a single field goal, going 1-of-15. Calvin Abueva outrebounded the entire San Miguel team, 10-8, in the last 12 minutes. Abueva grabbed 10 of Alaska’s 21 boards. Alaska’s defense led to six San Miguel turnovers while the Aces committed no mistake. In the end, Alaska turned in a more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio of 22:14 to San Miguel’s 17:16.

Every game in the Finals has been decided down the stretch. Game 1 went to overtime and Games 2 and 3 were settled in the fourth period. That means the key is finishing strong with fresher legs. It’s not the age factor that is significant. It’s how the players are shuffled in and out of the court so that in the closing minutes, the best combination is on the floor with a lot of gas left in the tank. Rotation is critical. How the coaches utilize their second and third units impacts on the final outcome.

In terms of age, San Miguel’s average is 28.5 years compared to Alaska’s 30.6. San Miguel has four players who are 25 or less (Fajardo, Justin Chua, David Semerad, Jeric Fortuna) and Alaska two (Rome de la Rosa, Chris Banchero). Alaska has seven players who are 30 and over (Eric Menk, 40, Dondon Hontiveros, 37, Tony de la Cruz, 36, Cyrus Baguio, 34, Gabby Espinas, 33, Sonny Thoss, 33, Sam Eman, 32). San Miguel has five players who are 30 and over (Bitoy Omolon, 34, Ronald Tubid, 33, Santos, 33, Alex Cabagnot, 32, Doug Kramer, 31).   

San Miguel has the edge in Finals experience with 34 appearances compared to Alaska’s 27. The Beermen have won 19 titles and Alaska, 14. But the Aces enjoy a big advantage in terms of Finals experience on a player basis. Alaska’s combined Finals appearances total 36 and San Miguel, 17. Menk has the most Finals outings with 8. Tubid is on top of San Miguel’s list with 6.

Man for man, San Miguel has more talent with 12 first round draft picks and 2 second rounders compared to Alaska’s 7 first rounders, 4 second rounders and 3 direct hires. Despite the team composition, Alaska has drawn more bench points in every game, 61-20 in Game 1, 37-29 in Game 2 and 34-28 in Game 3.

The statistics to keep track of in Game 4 will be bench points, assists, turnovers, rebounds and free throws. Those figures will reflect which team will play with more heart, conviction, smarts and drive.