40-20 rule

Phil Jackson has an interesting analogy in determining the chances of an NBA team winning the championship – if a team reaches 40 wins in the regular season before losing 20 games, it has a real chance of making it to the Finals.

Of the last 20 champions, an amazing 18 teams fall on the “40 before 20” indicator. 

This season, three teams officially qualify in this criteria – Detroit, Oklahoma and San Antonio.  They are currently the top three in the overall standings.  The Pistons, with a .763-win percentage, leads the league with a 45-14 win-loss record.  The Thunder comes in second with 47-15 (.758) followed by the Spurs, 43-17 (.717).

The Boston Celtics fell out of the equation with their loss to Denver last week, giving them a 38-20 record.  Currently, with a 2-game win streak, they are fourth overall in the standings with 40-20.

But this does not necessarily mean that either of the current top three teams will become 2026 NBA champions.  There are other equally unpredictable and contending teams just waiting for the right opportunity.  But they still must beat either Detroit, OKC or San Antonio.

The Pistons are tops in the league in points in the paint and the 6-10 Jalen Duren does most of the damage.  Detroit sees a reincarnation of Ben Wallace in Isaiah Stewart.  OKC has SGA and its capable support crew, but the refs should cut back on calling those SGA-initiated contacts.  With Wemby, and the dynamic duo of Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, the Spurs are a tough nut to crack.

League history supports this Phil Jackson rule.   There were 79 NBA champions and only 17 won the title after failing to win 40 games before they lost 20 games.   That’s 21.5 percent.  The 3-point era began in 1979 and only 4 teams (8.7%) since that era did not fall into the 40-20 formula.

Without Jayson Tatum, the Celtics are still very relevant and dangerous.  New York and Cleveland are no pushovers.   In the Western Conference, Houston, Minnesota and Denver will be making life difficult for OKC and San Antonio. 

The LA Lakers, 10th overall in the standings, could also crash the party, if they can discover how to play defense.  Luka Doncic must quit whining as it is disadvantageous to the team when he lags behind complaining to the refs.

If I can be so bold to predict the NBA Final Four this early, I will have Detroit facing Boston in the East and San Antonio either battling OKC or Denver in the West.