What to expect in the final week

CEBU, Philippines — With six stages remaining, four of them meaningful to the race for the maillot jaune (yellow jersey), this Tour is about to explode! Add into this combustible mix the rivalry (or not) between defending champion and 2nd place overall Chris Froome (SKY) and current leader teammate Gearing Thomas who leads Froome b y 1.39min. The question for team SKY is, “Who’s the big dog?” Can one of the two alphas really bow to the other?

And how about Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb), who’s at 3rd place just 11sec behind Froome, can he steal the jersey from the SKY duo? How about Lotto-Jumbo’s Primoz Roglic 4th, @2.38min and Steven Kruijswijk (7th @3.57min)? Or the wispy French hope Romain Bardet, 5th @3.21min?   And what about the other rivals like the Movistar trio of Alejandro Valverde, Mikel Landa and Nairo Quintana? Can they dig themselves out of the hole of irrelevancy and upset the apple cart?

And there is this out of the race issues of team SKY, when domestique Gianni Moscon punched another rider last Sunday?  Or team SKY’s principal Dave Brailsford blaming the French culture and people for the hostile reception the team have encountered on the roads of the Alps?

Here’s what I think. To be the man, you have to beat the man. Until Thomas can unseat Froome, then Froome should be the leader. If Froome falters in the next few climbs, then Thomas deserves the jersey and Froome’s support. In the meantime, the best tactic for SKY would be for Froome to attack and Thomas let Dumoulin chase.

Tom Dumoulin is the reigning World Time Trial champion. If at the start of the penultimate stage 19, the standings remain the same, the big Dutchman will win the time trial and the Tour.

Ex-ski jumper Roglic can both time trial and climb but he’s too young and inexperienced to make a dent on the top 3. Maybe next year. I don’t think Bardet can win his home Tour, he can only just tease his countrymen that he can be the next Frenchman to win since Bernard Hinault in 1985.

Movistar should look at its roster closely. Quintana has failed miserably and is just hoping that SKY would collapse. Well, Nairo, Movistar is  to paying you to drop Froome, not to hope to drop Froome. As for Landa, he just can’ find a team good enough to support his meager talents relative to a Tour contender and at the same time willing to give him a Froome-like contract at the same time. Movistar is Landa’s third team where he had to share leadership with other riders. Time to get out of your comfort zone, Mikel!