Froome’s reign

When Cadel Evans and Bradley Wiggins won their Tour de France back in 2011 and 2012, respectively, nobody came out and said that their reigns would Indurain-esque or Armstrong-esque in terms of longevity.

Other than Evans, Armstrong (2005), JoopZoetemelk (1980) and Gino Bartali (1948) also won at age 34 but no one has yet to win beyond that age.  Clearly, Evans, 36, is showing his age. In this year's Tour, he wasn't competing, he was simply surviving, in spite of the fact that he had a good team and a good resources behind him. He lost his consistency, is explosiveness and even the dog in him seemed missing.

Wiggins, on the other hand, was 32yo when he won in 2012. But the way he won it, I would daresay that it was luck, like when all-the-planets-align kind of luck. There was no Alberto Contador, who was serving his suspension, and Evans, well, his diminishment had already commenced at the time. His only adversary came from Italian Vincenzo Nibali, who still had unpolished skills at that time (Nibali would win the following year's Girod'Italia) and from his teammate, Chris Froome.

Wiggins is an average climber but an above average time triallist. I say above average since I don't think he can beat an in-form true TT specialists like Tony Martin or Fabian Cancellara. In a tour where it was TT-heavy with relatively fewer mountains, and where he the best team in the world to back him up, he was at the right spot at the right time- "all-the-planets-align". Even then, I would daresay again that if Chris Froome had been unleashed, Wiggins would be standing a rung lower in that Tour. For Wiggins to win again, he would need the same planetary alignment, which would be as likely to happen as a red carabao.

Froome is 28yo, the age considered as the time when a cyclist is at the top of his game. Considering his age, his talent, his team, his sponsor and his rivals, I believe that he will win at least three Tour de France's. His biggest rival is Contador, that is if he can pick himself up from the poor form when he showed up at the Tour 4 weeks ago. If Contador can get back to his pre-suspension form, he will really give Froome and team Sky a run for their money. The way he beat Purito Rodriguez in the 2012, from behind, is a mirage. Rodriguez, 34, is not at the same level with Froome. Nibali, 28yo, is another possible Froome rival and he has sad that he will be targeting the 2014 Tour but he relatively is a lesser time triallist and a climber than Froome.

No cyclist has ever won another Tour after winning their first past the age of 31. It is unlikely that Evans and Wiggins, who fall in the same category, will accomplish the feat. So better prepare for Froome's long reign.

Finally, I was halfway through writing my column for today regarding the retrospective testing of urine samples from the 1998 Tour de France and I realized that I was sick of writing, reading and hearing about it. I know its not something that cycling fans in particular and sports fans in general can hide from but as far as I'm concerned it has come to a point where it has been dissected with no end in sight it makes me puke. So as starting with this column, I will be abstaining from touching this subject until further notice.