A victim of his own talent

When a cyclist become so dominant, it can sometimes get in the way of winning. Last Saturday, in the first “monument“ of this season, the Milan-San Remo (MSR), Fabian Cancellara became a victim of this cycling cliché.

The MSR is the longest race in the professional calendar. It is 298 km long, and it’s like going to Bogo from Cebu and then back to Cebu and then finish in Bogo. The winner, Simon Gerrans, is the second Aussie to win MSR in two years and he needed almost 7 hours of saddle time for his first classic win.

Since 2010, Cancellara, has been unarguably the strongest cyclist in the world. That year, he dominated the classics, beating and pushing out Belgian Tom Boonen as the best classic rider from that year on. So dominant was the Swiss that a former Italian pro and TV commentator surmised that Cancellara’s bike had a motor hidden inside his bike frame!

Professional road racing has its own peculiar dynamics and for a race this long, team strategy is one, long, relay, with the top rider of the team as the baton. It is physically impossible for one to ride 300km with the wind in your face, and for this reason, it’s the teams domestique’s job to keep the team leader from the wind (drafting), keep him safe from crashes and get food and water from the team car. In other words, the rest of the team are nothing but carriers of the baton.

Drafting (or slipstreaming) isn’t new. Migrating birds have been using the V-formation to save energy. F1 drivers use the “slingshot” technique when overtaking. Drafting behind another cyclist means a 40% savings in energy.

So when the trio of Cancellara, Gerrans and Italian Vincenzo Nibali broke away near the top of the last climb and had a 6sec lead with 6km to go, the podium was clearly set. But Cancellara was in a quandary. He knew of a few facts: 1. He was the strongest in the trio, 2. Gerrans was usually the better sprinter than himself and Nibali couldn’t sprint. He also knew that if he didn’t drive the break, they get caught. He also knew that because of his perceived strength, both his companions wouldn’t help him set the pace because if they do, he would simply drop them easily. And so, with about 10 minutes of racing left, it became a game of poker.

I guess that Cancellara realized that if he won’t set the pace, the pack at 12 seconds behind, that contained the best sprinters in the world, would catch them and he’d end up with nothing. I also guessed that in a 300km race, Cancellara believed that anything can happen. And so he droved the break. When Cancellara asked Gerrans to help him, the Aussie did a token lead with about 1000 meters to go. In the sprint, Cancellara led out as expected got beaten on the line. Last year, another Aussie, Matt Goss, beat him on the line.

Would the same scenario replay itself in two weeks time in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, with teams racing not to lose to the strength of Cancellara? I wouldn’t be surprised if it would. For Cancellara, 2012 is eerily similar to 2011 and I’m sure he doesn’t want history to repeat himself. I hope he has an ace up his sleeve otherwise, it will be another frustrating year, just because he is best rider in the world.