Tight finish
CEBU, Philippines - With the top 3 overall just within 57sec within each other, expect a cardiac finish. At this point, crunching numbers as to who will win won't mean anything. Three weeks of racing at the top level, mixed with crashes, extreme weather and general fatigue will be a major factor in tomorrow's 43km ITT.
On paper, Cadel Evans will win. He is the better against the clock compared to the Schlecks with Andy and Frank just 57 and 4 seconds respectively ahead of the Aussie. Former yellow jersey Thomas Voeckler is 4th at 2.10min after bravely defending the Maillot Jaune for over a week, but he can't time trial.
Defending champion Alberto Contador, sitting at 6th, is the dark horse here and although his chances are slim of defending his crown, I think he can sneak into the podium in Paris in lieu of Frank. Forget DamianoCunego, who is at 5th spot but is only a footnote in this years Tour. Can't time trial, this Italian.
For me, this is Cadel Evan's Tour to lose. Since he won the World Championships two ago, he is a change rider, whereas he was known as a wheelsucker, he is now an attacking rider. Unlike in the previous years, he seems to ride with a purpose and for this reason, I'll hand him the yellow jersey a day early.
But of course, a word of caution. In the 2008 Tour, he was in the same situation going into the final ITT against a Carlos Sastre, a relative slowpoke, but Evans couldn't overhaul the minute and a half deficit and he lost to Sastre.
As for the Schlecks, their racing IQ is really nothing to be proud of. I don't know why they had to drag Evans to the top of L'Alped'Huez when they shouldn't. If they had just played it right, they'd minutes ahead of Evans. (FREEMAN)
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