2009 Tour de France

This weekend, the Grand Depart of the biggest bicycle race in the universe will be on. BALLS TV will air it on cable TV but for whatever reason, they don’t give out their program schedules. You can also go to www.steephill.tv, www.justin.tv or www.cyclingfans.com for a link to “live” internet video streaming.

There are about 11 riders who I think can seriously be considered favorites to win this years Tour. Five are dark horses while the podium can be filled by the other 6.

Darkhorses (not in any particular order):

Kim Kirchen had a stong showing last year but that was a year when the best stage racer in Alberto Conador was absent. Kirchen is a strong climber and also good against the clock but at this point but he’s simply a notch below the other favorites. Samuel Sanchez is the 4th best stage racer from Spain after Contador, Carlos Sastre and Alejandro Valverde. Unless he gets a 10-minute lead going into the mountains like what happened in 1990, it’ll an uphill climb for Sammy. Christian Vande Velde is the 3rd best stage American stage racer after Lance Armstrong and Levi Leipheimmer. Transformed into a Tour contender last year, CVV is an exceptional time-triallist but has problems with pace changes in the mountains. Andy Schleck is another exceptional climber but he will be working for Carlos Sastre. He won a stage at Alp d”Huez 2 years ago but might have problems stringing up consistent performances in the mountains. Not a great time trialist though. Andreas Kloden is the enigma in this group, but his good days were back in 2003. Its hard for me to picture this German winning the Tour and the fact that he’s a ”domestique” in the star-studded ASTANA team makes it the more unlikely.

Probable Podium

I know that there is no undeserving champion in the Tour but if there is someone close to one in recent memory, it’s Carlos Sastre. I’ve already made my case in my previous columns and I wouldn’t have included him in this select group of he wasn’t the defending champion. Levi Leipheimer’s personality doesn’t scream at you, he does his riding do the talking. He could be a leader in the other 15 teams but as a domestique for ASTANA, it would take an improbable circumstance for him to win. But as another domestique at ASTANA, it would be hard for him to win. I thought that Denis Menchov was wheelsucker and only good for the lesser of the 3 Grand Tours, the Vuelta a Espagna, but his aggressiveness in the Giro d’Italia last month opened a lot of eyes. Anything less than top 3 would be a disappointment. I have accused Cadel Evans of being too cautious for his exceptional talents. He would simply wait for the TT’s to beat his foes but that doesn’t always work out. In this months’ Dauphine Libere, Cadel showed a different face, attacking Alberto Contador and Valverde not thrice but more than 10 times in successive stages. Although he couldn’t’ shake them off, his rivals will prepare differently for him this time. Lance Armstrong has won a few races since he unretired but all of them were “tigbakay” races back in the US. A broken collarbone set back his preparation but if he doesn’t show improvement, a top 5 finish would be a better option. This race is Alberto Contador’s to lose. If Contador shows the same form he did in 2007, then the peloton will have to genuflect to the king. The king is dead, long live the king!

(Next, the Drama within ASTANA) - – THE FREEMAN