TOUR ANALYSIS: The calm before the storm

France’s national holiday, the Bastille, is still a week away yet today, the TdF looked like an early celebration of the storming of the Bastille.

Today’s stage 3, was a 208 kilometer of basically flat roads from Saint-Malo - Nantes, and was considered as a stage for the sprinters. But right from the gun, American Will Frishckhorn decided to have a go. He was joined by Italian Paolo Borghini and two Frenchmen, Samuel Dumoulin and Romain Feillu.

I wrote yesterday that the peloton usually catches the breakaway in the final kilometers but today, the escapees made good of their flight. Dumoulin just pipped Frishckhorn and Feillu on the line while Borghini was dropped inside the last K. While Dumoulin won stage 3, Feillu, as the highest general classification rider in the break, ripped the yellow jersey from Alejandro Valverde’s back. What could be better than a stage win and a yellow jersey? For a country starved of cycling heroes, yes, it should feel like Bastille Day!

What Held Back The Sprinters?

For one, there is an Individual Time Trial tomorrow (ITT) so the favorites were taking it easy. Second, among the four, there was none who could be considered a threat to the favorites- sprinters green jersey, the polka-dot jersey and the best young rider’s white jersey, so they simply had to let it go. Third, it was pissing rain and if added the strong winds then you have a very unmotivated peloton. In fact, Ricardo Ricco and Dennis Menchov, two yellow jersey pretenders, lost 38 seconds when QUICKSTEP poured on the coals and split the peloton in half. Valverde, Cadel Evans and Carlos Satre fortunately were in the lead group when it  happened. That’s why the contenders should be alert in these flat stages because it’s a stage were there is nothing to win but all to lose.

Stage 4

Tomorrow’s stage is a 29km ITT and my favorite is Swiss strongman Fabian Cancellara. Cancellara is not a candidate for the yellow jersey so whether he wins or not tomorrow is not important to Valverde, Evans, Cunego, Satre or Menchov. In other words, the time difference between these riders is what is important.

The stage is not as long as to make a huge time gap but I think that Evans will come on top of the group flowed closely by Valverde and Menchov. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Valverde surprises!

Colombian Condor

Mauricio Soler, the Colombian climbing sensation, lost more time again today. Last year’s King of the Mountain crashed during stage 1 and is believed to have broken his wrist. Pain is preventing him from standing up on his bike that’s why he’s been sitting in the saddle for 2 days. This led to the cramping of his muscles causing him to lose more time today. One good thing about the huge time he lost- he’d be allowed to breakaway in the mountains, assuming of course if his wrist heals.