Text messages warning of quake jolt Cebuanos

A disturbing text message warning of a major earthquake hitting the Philippines swept through Cebu and other parts of the country yesterday, provoking a wide variety of reactions that ranged from grave concern to feigned nonchalance.

Frantic calls were received at media outlets verifying the veracity of the text messages, with some going so far as to ask whether classes were to be suspended and office workers to be sent home.

The message, which started making the rounds at about noon, said a 6.8 magnitude earthquake would hit the Philippines by last night. The text message said the warning purportedly came from the “Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office,” quoting a “prediction” by the “U.S. Geological Society.”

There is, however, no U.S. Geological Society. And the Hawaii State Emergency Preparedness Office cannot be found in a check on the Internet.

What exists, as most everyone knows, is the U.S. Geological Survey, which is the lead U.S. agency on such matters as earthquakes. And on its website on earthquakes at http://earthquake.usgs.gov the U.S.G.S. categorically debunks any notion about the ability of anyone to predict earthquakes.

In the frequently asked questions portion of the website, in answer to the question “can you predict earthquakes?,” the U.S.G.S. answered: “No. Neither the U.S.G.S. nor Caltech (California Tech) nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However, based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes.”

The U.S.G.S. went on to say that it focuses its efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology or Phivolcs, asked to react to the text messages, said virtually the same thing about the absence of any method or device to predict earthquakes.

Phivolcs seismic observer Robinson Jorgio tried to allay public fears by saying there is no truth to the text messages. Nevertheless, he called on the public to be vigilant.

A magnitude 6.8 earthquake is strong enough to cause widespread destruction.

At least 12,000 people were killed in China when a 7.9 magnitude earthquake hit the country last Monday.

Among the most destructive earthquakes to have hit the Philippines was the intensity 7 earthquake that caused the collapse of the Ruby Towers building in Manila on August 2, 1968, killing at least 342 people.

On July 16, 1990, a massive earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 on the Richter scale ravaged Baguio City and Central Luzon, killing more than 400 people and causing the collapse of the Hyatt Terraces Hotel in the Pine City.

Intensity is used to measure how an earthquake is felt at a given area. Magnitude refers to the inherent strength of the earthquake. — Jasmin Uy, and Rizzi Ann Cerera/UPCommArts Intern/JST