El Niño to strengthen in next three months

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration recently announced that the "weak" El Niño phenomenon that is being experienced in the country today is expected to strengthen within the next three months and will likely continue until June next year.

The weather bureau reported that starting last October, indicators are leading to the conclusion of a progressive evolution of the current episode. This was manifested by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the Central Equatorial and Eastern Pacific (CEEP) and the decrease of the Southern Oscillation Index (difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin) observed during the month.

PAGASA said the weather systems that affected the country were the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, the tail-end of a cold front, and the occurrence of three tropical cyclones namely, "Neneng," "Ompong" and "Paeng."

In October, it added that rainfall during the month was below to near normal in most parts of the country except in Isabela and Tarlac due to typhoon "Paeng," and the Zamboanga Peninsula, Davao del Sur, Cotabato, Maguindanao, Basilan and Sulu that was caused by the ITCZ.

Except in these areas, PAGASA said temperatures in the country ranged from 21°C to 33°C over the lowlands of Luzon, 16°C to 23°C for mountainous areas of Luzon, 24°C to 32°C for Visayas, 22°C to 33°C over the lowlands of Mindanao and 20°C to 28°C over the mountainous areas of Mindanao.

Based on the latest observations and international forecast models, the weather bureau said intensification of the El Niño phenomenon is expected during the next three months and will likely continue through April until June.

In the coming months, except in areas that will be hit by typhoons, temperature will range from 22°C to 32°C over the lowlands of Luzon, 15°C to 23°C over the mountainous areas of Luzon, 23°C to 32°C for Visayas, 23°C to 32°C over the lowlands of Mindanao and 19°C to 30°C over the mountainous areas of Mindanao.

The PAGASA said it will continue to monitor the day-to-day weather situation and the large-scale climatic patterns affecting the Philippines, and will issue monthly updates on the El Niño episode.

Meanwhile, all concerned government agencies are advised to continue implementing appropriate measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of El Niño on agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, health and sanitation. - Wenna A. Berondo