Life and Risk

CEBU, Philippines -  Modern life is replete with all manner of threats - to our lives, our peace of mind, our hard-earned resources, our families, and our futures. And from these threats come questions that we must pose to ourselves: Is the food I buy safe? Are toys for my children likely to cause them harm? How risky is that toxic waste dump over in the next country or the nuclear reactor hundreds of miles from my home? Should my family avoid processed meats? Am I likely to be robbed on my way to and from work? If we stop to think about it, our uncertainties can multiply indefinitely.

 Anxiety about the risks of life is a bit like hypochondria; in both, the fear or anxiety feeds on "partial" information. But the one sharp difference between the two is that the hypochondriac can usually turn to a physician to get a definitive clarification of the situation - either you have the suspected disease or you don't. It is much more difficult with anxiety about other forms of risk, because with many risks, the situation is not as cut and dried.

Risks are almost always a matter of probabilities rather than certainties. You may ask, "Should I wear seatbelts?" If you're going to have a head-on collision, well of course! But what if, heaven forbid, you get hit from the side and end up trapped inside the vehicle, unable to extricate yourself because of a mangled seatbelt mechanism? So does this mean that you should lay out the extra cash for an airbag?

Again in head-on collision, an airbag may save your life. But what if the bag accidentally inflates while you are driving down the highway, thus causing an accident that would never have occurred otherwise? Some safety experts are even saying that, in the first place, an airbag does less to save your life than a seatbelt will.

According to Murphy's famous law, if something can go wrong, it will. Fortunately, Murphy's  law is patently false. If even most of the things that could go wrong routinely did go wrong, then none of us would now be around to muse about it.

That said, we have to acknowledge that at any time, a dizzying number of things could start going wrong. Whether they will, and which ones, all depends on the relevant possibilities. All of this is another way of saying that nothing we do is completely safe.

There are risks, including potentially serious ones, associated with every hobby we have, every job we take, every bite we swallow - in sum, with every action we make. But the fact that there are risks associated with everything we contemplate doing does not - or should not - reduce us to trembling neurotics. Some of our actions are riskier than others. The point is to acquaint ourselves about the relevant risks and then act accordingly.

Experts agree that large cars are generally safer in collisions than small cars. A diet mainly consisting of fruits and vegetables have been proven less likely to bring on ailments than those of meats. One can be hit by lightning by staying outside during a thunderstorm.

No, knowledge of such facts will not totally eliminate the risks. But taking the necessary precautions will definitely help make us less likely to be unsuspecting victims. A bit of caution can save dear life and limb.

- Mainly from the Introduction of The Book of Risks by Larry Laudan, published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (FREEMAN)