The end of oil, the end of civilization?

Eleanor's Note: I'm overjoyed finding posts in my ebox praising me for jobs well done, some with their criticisms serving like gentle rain that nourishes improvement of this writing craft. After getting to print a contribution from UP MassComm stude Cris Evert Lato, I would like to again give way to a concern raised by niteranger0127. "The end of oil, the end of civilization?," penned by Rowland Eturma, on the world's dependence on oil and the reported impending doom this could bring about to humandom should this vital resource run out of supply. For your comments/reactions, kindly tell Row about it at [email protected] or through 0916-3943456. For those bitten by the writer's bug, craving to be read, The FREEMAN is the appropriate medium. Flood me with your contributions at [email protected] or text me at 0921-5323616.

When the film Mad Max: The Road Warrior was released over a score ago, it was dismissed as too outlandish. Looking back, I don't think it's such a fiction after all. Desperate countries could go to war once oil is gone. It's not just necessity. It's a matter of survival. Once oil goes out of supply, everything stops and chaos will ensue. Blackouts will plague major cities and the thin veil we call "civilization" will disintegrate once people start fighting. Is this the kind of world we want our kids to inherit? No, but it is our greed that will do them in. Investing in our children's future entails the responsibility to act now and address this concern on behalf of the next generation of youngsters.

Fast facts five!

Fact # 1. Historically, no civilization lasts forever. At a certain point, civilization reaches it's peak, then goes down rapidly thereafter whether by man-made catastrophe or natural disaster. Fact # 2. The world will someday start running out of oil. But when? If Princeton professor, geologist and oil maverick Kenneth Deffeyes is to be believed, the world will start running out of oil by November 24, this year!!!

By then, the world oil production has reached its peak, accounting for around 77% of the world's known total oil reserve already being extracted. It is not just bold prediction. Deffeyes used a tried-and-tested formula that's based on known reserves and figures in oil production known as Hubbert's Peak. Named after American geophysicist Marrion King Hubbert (1903-89), the formula is used to estimate the productive life of energy reserves.

In 1956, Hubbert used his model to predict that oil production in the continental United States would peak between 1966 to 1972. It actually occurred shortly afterward in 1971, and U.S. oil production has declined by 50% since. Deffeyes sees the same situation in global production occurring by around U.S. Thanksgiving (that's November 24). That's pretty close to conservative estimates by the U.S. geological survey that puts the peak somewhere between 2004 and 2008. While Deffeyes' prediction is clearly controversial, dozens of energy experts and academics are now taking the "Peak Oil" theory seriously.

A report this year by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Technology Laboratory warned of a fast approaching inevitable peaking of conventional oil production. Unless new oil fields are discovered and opened up soon, the downward trend in oil production will be irreversible and will have disastrous effects on the world economy. But experts doubt any new fields will be opened up soon given the fact that 20% of the world's oil are thought to lie in inhospitable, hard- to- extract places.

Fact # 3: When the Olduvai Theory first came out, it was labeled outrageous, unthinkable and anti-development. Now, it's fast becoming a reality and critics are rethinking their stance. In 1989, Richard Duncan, Ph.D. first introduced the theory of the post-industrial stone-age era known as Olduvai Theory. It states that the lifespan of industrial civilization is horribly short, less than or just equal to 100 years: 1930-2030.

By 2030, energy production per capita will fall to its lowest level, creating a new, permanent condition that will make oil-dependent economies crumble, eventually leading to an impending return to stone-age way of life.

Geologists expect 2005 will be the last year of the cheap oil bonanza, while estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate "a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007, which will lead to major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts beginning from 2008".

Once the energy crisis goes into full swing, severe blackouts will occur around the world. Eventually, permanent blackouts will paralyze operations and making major cities like New York, Los Angeles, London and Tokyo unlivable, while causing food riots and chaos worldwide.

Fact # 4: Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up. Once the decline gets underway, production will drop by 3% (conservative estimate) per year, every year. By estimates, there will be an average of 2% annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with a 3% natural decline in production. By 2010, the US alone will need an additional 50 million barrels a day. Not even their 700 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve could cover that, lasting just two weeks if used extensively.

Fact # 5: No alternative currently on the drawing board appears to be sufficient. Calls for oil conservation will do little to reverse the trend, so forget about it. It's a case of doing too little, too late. The search for alternative energy should have been taken seriously 20 or even 10 years ago. Everything's too dependent on oil that even if a new source of energy is used, it will do little to prevent a catastrophe. Resource wars could even explode everywhere, with nations divided between the "haves" and the "have-nots".

So, why are Kenneth Deffeyes' and Richard Duncan's theories not given enough prominence? Because Deffeyes' prediction is quite controversial. Some critics argue that you can't predict the future by using a formula from the past. But if he's proven correct, we have no one else to blame but us. Duncan's theory is also not widely accepted, although current events gave experts a reason to take the theory seriously, given the fact that half of the events he outlined has happened already.

Deadpans, everyone?

The facts I presented above are true and the events are real. In fact, we are already experiencing the first-stage effect of "peak oil." Recently, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced they will increase output, but warned that refineries have reached their capacity. But what good are additional refineries if the real problem is the supply of oil? The high fuel prices we are paying now is just the beginning. Eventually, it will get worse and no matter how much money we pay for fuel, when oil wells go dry, it won't matter much anymore.

Early on, in Clinton's term, the US government already foresaw the energy crisis that would plague the whole world and endanger civilization. The report was labeled "URGENT" but confidential. When George W. Bush became President, it took an even more urgent tone since Vice President Dick Cheney's business, Halliburton, is an energy company. Besides Saudi Arabia, the US would need another source of oil for "steady reserve." So did the US go to war in Iraq to secure this vital resource? I leave that judgment up to you, but if you were to ask me, I'd say negative public opinion and US soldiers' deaths in Iraq may be a small price to pay to secure a country's future. And what is our government doing? Not being an oil-producing nation, the more we ought to act immediately on this matter. But why is nobody listening? Because people are too engrossed with their present lives to care about it 'til it arrives. Most are ignorant because nobody is talking loudly, even if alarm bells are ringing.

OPEC countries are flooded with too much cash from oil revenues, not realizing it could cause their economy (reverse-effect inflation ) more harm than good. Automobile manufacturers are too sales-driven and profit-oriented that raising the alarm could spell a death-knell to their industry. Hybrid vehicles are expensive and difficult to maintain.

Bio-ethanol, coco diesel and natural gas would not be able to meet world demand. Converting industrial machines could be very expensive and won't be applicable to all equipments. But that doesn't mean we should give up hope. We have to find every possible alternative and we have to act now. Lobby for strong attention on viable alternatives to oil and demand strong attention on the impending oil crisis. Be like me and let your voice be heard, no matter how silly and futile this may seem. Remember that 2030 is not that far and a lot of us would still be alive by then. Most of all, do it for your loved ones. This article is an impassioned plea, not just for us, but for all our children.

* * *

TEXTPRESS URSELF. 30-Sept.-2005 16:45:12 "Hello ds s Nick, ur artcle siren song of sagarmathaji's heights last sept 26 ws quiet xcelent cuz 8 ignited my adrenalin 2 luv mountaineering - d best among ul d outdors...i's was dr n cbu on ds day u publish n d FREEMAN...U know wev a grup of KASAKA mountainers hr i fnded 8 nov. last yer durng our hike 2 d hiest pek hr 2gedr w8 my frens dong, uma, brad, li, demz, riza & ian wer ul amateurs...can u give me tips, manual n hiking outdor or cn u refr us 2 bcom xpert n ds outdor ul of us realy luv 8, wev plan anothr hike n nov. 3..Or wer cn i find n cebu seling outdr gears. I'm promoting ds w8 r youth includng tre planting n every ascent. Ur realy a blesng 2 us. My ful name s Ronelo Nick Hidalgo, a hiskul tcher, brgy san agustin, babatngon, leyte, 20km frm d cty of Tacloban. Tnx. Godbless:) - Mobile phone number withheld. GREETINGS go to TF proofreader, Maribeth Berongan, who is celebrating her birthday today! (Oct. 10). Also to Assignments/Desk Editor Quennie Bronce (October 15), to Ms. Flora Mata of the Circulation Dept. (Oct 26) and our general services staff Socrates (Oct 20). Belated Happy B.day to our sports section writer Sona May Povadora (October 8).