Disasters: Vulnerabilities and opportunities

A tremor (September 30, 2025) and Typhoon Tino (November 4, 2025) wrought havoc in Cebu last year. Then, five days ago, a 7.8-tremor hit South Cotabato. So frequent and devastating that some of our countrymen even believe that we are cursed.

True or not, according to World Risk Index, for two decades now, these yearly visits put us at the top of the list of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. However, while we are no. 1 in terms of risk, to our credit and of the government, we do not belong among the top ten countries that are the most vulnerable. This is so, as our responses to these natural disasters have been satisfactory to some extent.

However, what are more terrifying in these sagas are the peoples’ behavior. In some disasters, lawlessness like looting obtained. As we are so politically polarized, fake news and conspiracy theories abound. Sadly, some took them as gospel truth.

As we struggle to gather whatever are still considered useful from the rubbles left by this latest disaster, let us set aside these unpalatable experiences and ponder a bit on the economic well-being of South Cotabato and its people. Clearly, losses are in billions of pesos. However, as has always been the case even in the most advanced countries (that have suffered catastrophes), these figures are inaccurate and are normally overstated. To better understand it, let’s identify where losses could be without even attempting of quantifying it.

For one, in terms of losses (on businesses), the decline in values may be measurable but lost income is quite difficult. For instance, the losses on agriculture, are harder to quantify. Either one may determine the amount spent so far in raising the crops and consider all accumulated costs as losses or peg the losses on the potential income of said crops upon harvest. Whatever the methods shall be, the fact remains that losses were incurred. 

On the other hand, the decline in the value of the structures of the department stores, factories, etc. maybe figured out but the amount that should have been earned out of profits had business remained uninterrupted is harder to determine.  In both instances, however, losses are definite. So that, to those affected, tax payments (for national and local) will substantially reduce for the time being. Moreover, whether properties are residential or used in business, the local government units (LGUs) will suffer as well. With the decline in values of these real properties, collection of real property taxes will certainly plummet. Worst, it may even be brought down to near zero (in some LGUs) as the supposed taxpayers are still reeling from the current devastation.      

As in most tragedies, after the search, rescue and retrieval operations, rebuilding follows. Again, analyzing the country’s GDP on the spending side, the main drivers are the government’s infrastructure and consumer spending. Certainly, these two main drivers will heavily figure out in the next couple of months or years. For one, with several bridges, kilometers of roads and countless of buildings destroyed, the government will set aside huge amounts for their reconstruction. Therefore, expect that as we start rebuilding, we shall see a lot of opportunities we've never seen in normal times. 

However, this is the tricky and most sensitive part. Yes, amid heaps of debris, clearing operations present countless of chances even to those lacking in skills or inadequately educated. Construction workers will be in demand as the government speeds up the restoration of school buildings as well as stretches of roads and bridges. However, if the government awards these money-making activities to contractors outside of this affected province, the recovery efforts might be dented a bit. For one, the non-resident contractors already have their own workers and might just bring them to the ravaged areas, thus, denying the locals the opportunity to earn a living. Moreover, the income it generates from the contract shall go out of the province, thus, siphoning the amount from it and denying the place the much-needed multiplier effect of such money. 

Thus, despite all the criticisms on inefficiencies and insufficiencies this government has so far endured, it can make it right if it will try to make a way for Southern Mindanao-based contractors to undertake the reconstruction activities. 

In doing so, not only will they be able to rehabilitate their province, they shall also be able to rebuild themselves.