El Ni o: Threat to food & power supply

In May, this year, PAGASA issued an  El Ni o alert  saying that  the weather phenomenon might emerge between June and July at 80 percent probability and might persist until the first quarter of 2024.

Yes, but it seems, however, that we were able to weather the impact of such phenomenon this year. The problem though is, while the dry spell and drought were forecasted to only persist until the first quarter of next year, these are now expected to last until the end of the second quarter.

First and foremost, what automatically come to mind are food security concerns.    According to the United Nations  Committee on World Food Security, it means that  all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life.  Obviously, therefore, the opposite pervades in the world. That many of us merely exist. On hand-to-mouth existence.

In us, we may not be that food insecure but shortages do exist.  These shortages are not prevalently felt though as we try to cover these with imports. Undeniably, we import rice from our neighboring ASEAN member states and fish (galunggong) from China. The question now is, shall we continue to embrace our current solution?

Notably, the situation can go worse. For one, pundits projected that by 2050  the world s population shall be at least 9 billion.  With such size, the demand for food will be enormous.  Truth to tell, we shall be a major contributor to such population growth. Growing at the vicinity of 1.7 percent a year or close to 1.8 million, we might be adding 20 million to our current population by then. Thus, our demand for food multiplies.

Unfortunately, apart from food security, power supply will also be a major concern.  A reliable source from the industry noted that 9.4% of the country s power supply comes from hydropower plants. This fact makes the situation so precarious as that would mean huge reduction from hydropower plant output.  Additionally, according to former DOE undersecretary Jay Layug,  supply is always insufficient.

Definitely, the power supply side should be augmented. But can that be done next year (2024)? No way.  It is only now that we re building renewables. It will take at least two years to build new projects,  Layug, added. Obviously, therefore, supply concerns will even spill over to 2025.  In the meantime, Layug also raised  the possibility that the power situation for the summer months of 2024 could be worse than what was seen during this year s dry months.   Needless to say, we may be paying higher rates in 2024 than in 2023 amidst constant power outages.

Now, in trying to understand better the dire consequences of power shortages, we need to ponder from what Anne Estorco Montelibano, president of the Philippine Independent Power Producers Association (PIPPA) shared in a webinar organized by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) earlier this year. According to her, a  five-hour power outage in the country results in about P556 million in economic losses.

Left unchecked, the  Philippines stands to lose more as the energy sector continues to face challenges such as insufficient power supply, congested transmission lines, and recurring damages from disasters,  according to some energy experts in the same webinar. And to understand better our situation, Montelibano made it clear that to mitigate the losses,  the energy sector can determine the acceptable number of hours of power interruption, known as loss of load expectation (LOLE).

The Philippines  LOLE, she said, is  10 days a year, significantly higher than Singapore s one hour in 10 years.  With this, we shall no longer have to wonder why a pint-sized Singapore is better than us.

Yes, despite typhoons and droughts occurring more often, our sources of food are clear.  Apparently, most of our lands are arable. Sadly, however, we are prevalently into subsistence agriculture or farming. Simply put, most of our farmers are planting crops or raising livestock just enough for their families  food intake. There are almost no surpluses that they might be able to trade or sale, so they may able to feed one other family.

Moreover, this year, Sec. Lotilla stressed that the DOE remained  unrelenting in its efforts to push for the greater use of renewable energy in the country.  More importantly, he said that the  government issued several enabling policies that open new opportunities for international investments.

Agreeably, that the country now allows 100 percent foreign ownership for renewable energy technologies in geothermal, biomass, solar, wind, ocean and tidal wave is a welcome development.